Issued: 2:08 PM PST Friday, December 10, 2021
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

A strong frontal system emanates from a deep Gulf of Alaska low. Light to moderate snowfall Friday afternoon should become heavy overnight as ridgeline winds become strong in many areas. The heaviest snow (and low elevation rain) arrives as the cold front slowly pushes through the region from NW to SE Friday night into Saturday morning. A wedge of warm air brings the possibility of a wintry mix below 3,500 feet followed by a brief period of wintry mix as warm air over-runs colder low-level easterly flow. Following the cold frontal passage, several hours of rain will be likely later Saturday morning before cooler air rapidly moves back into the region during the afternoon.

The front slows as it progresses through the southern Cascades and Mt Hood areas on Saturday, resulting in sustained heavy snowfall and strong to extreme winds in these areas. Post frontal snow showers continue for the west slopes of the Cascades and the passes later Saturday. Shower activity might relent some Saturday evening before a significant disturbance arriving from the WSW (West South West) reinvigorates more intense snow showers overnight. Expect light to moderate snow showers and 500-2,000 ft snow levels on Sunday.

Storm totals should bring 1.5-4.5" of water equivalent, which could amount to anywhere from 1-4 ft of snow with Baker, Paradise, and Hood - the likely winners through the weekend.

 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Friday Night Heavy snow becoming very heavy and mixing with rain up to 4500 ft in the early morning hours. Strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Light to moderate snow showers with lowering snow levels.
Friday Night Heavy snow in the evening becoming very heavy after midnight. Strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Moderate to heavy snow in the morning tapering to light to moderate snow showers in the afternoon.
Friday Night Increasing heavy snow. Strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Heavy snow tapering to light to moderate snow showers in the afternoon.
Friday Night Increasing heavy snow at Paradise becoming very heavy overnight. Light snow becoming heavy overnight at Crystal. Increasing light to moderate snow at White Pass. Strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Very heavy snow at Paradise tapering to moderate snow in the afternoon. In other areas, heavy snow in the morning tapering to moderate snow (White Pass) and light snow (Crystal) in the afternoon. Decreasing strong ridgeline winds in the morning.
Friday Night Moderate snow in the evening, becoming heavy overnight. Light to moderate variable, then E wind at the Pass. Strong ridgeline wind gusts.
Saturday Moderate snow becoming increasingly showery by afternoon. Moderate easterly winds in the early morning switching W and becoming light to moderate in the afternoon.
Friday Night Increasing heavy snow. Light to moderate variable, then E wind at the Pass. Strong ridgeline wind gusts.
Saturday A wintry mix in the morning with moderate to heavy snow above 3500 ft with increasingly showery conditions later in the day as snow levels lower below the Pass. Moderate easterly winds in the early morning switching W and becoming light to moderate in the afternoon.
Friday Night Light snow in the evening becoming heavy overnight. Moderate to strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Moderate to heavy snow early tapering to light snow showers later in the day.
Friday Night Light to moderate snow in the evening becoming moderate to heavy overnight. Strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Moderate to heavy rain and snow in the morning tapering to light snow showers in the afternoon with lowering snow levels. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Night Increasing light snow becoming moderate in the northern part. Moderate to strong ridgeline winds.
Saturday Moderate rain and snow in the morning tapering to light snow showers in the afternoon. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing into the moderate range.
Friday Night Increasing light snow becoming moderate to heavy after midnight. Strong to extreme ridgeline winds.
Saturday Very heavy snow above 3500-4000 ft, heavy rain below. Strong ridgeline winds with extreme gusts.

Precipitation (in)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 1.50 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area 2.00 - 2.50 0.75 -1.00 0.75 0.25 - 0.50
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 1.00 - 1.50 0.75 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt 1.00 0.75 -1.00 0.25 - 0.50 0.25
Paradise 1.50 1.50 0.75 0.25
White Pass 0.50 - 0.75 1.00 0.50 0.25
Washington Pass 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25
Mission Ridge 0.25 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 0.75 -1.00 1.00 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0.25 - 0.50 0.75 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 0.25 - 0.50 1.50 0.75 0.25
Timberline 0.50 1.50 0.75 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.50
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 2.00 - 2.50
Saturday 0.75 -1.00
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.25 - 0.50
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Saturday 0.75
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.00
Saturday 1.00
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.00
Saturday 1.00
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.00
Saturday 0.75 -1.00
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday 0.25
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.50
Saturday 1.50
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.25
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Saturday 1.00
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 1.00
Saturday 0.75
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Sunday LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.75 -1.00
Saturday 1.00
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.25 - 0.50
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday 0.75
Saturday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Sunday LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday 1.50
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.25
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0.50
Saturday 1.50
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.25

Snow Level (ft)

Friday Evening Friday Night* Saturday Morning* Saturday Afternoon Saturday Evening Saturday Night Sunday Morning Sunday Afternoon
Olympics 2500' 3000' 4000' 2500' 1000' 1000' 500' 1000'
West North 1500' 2500' 2500' 2500' 1000' 500' 500' 1000'
West Central 2000' 2500' 3000' 2500' 1500' 1000' 500' 1000'
West South 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1500' 1000' 1500'
Stevens Pass 2000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1000' 500' 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1000' 500' 1000'
East North 1500' 2000' 2000' 3000' 2000' 500' 0 1000'
East Central 2000' 2500' 2500' 3000' 2000' 1000' 500' 1000'
East South 2500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 2500' 1500' 1000' 1500'
Mt. Hood 2500' 3000' 3500' 4000' 3000' 2500' 1500' 2000'
Olympics Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night* 3000'
Saturday Morning* 4000'
Saturday Afternoon 2500'
Saturday Evening 1000'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
West North Elevation
Friday Evening 1500'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday Morning* 2500'
Saturday Afternoon 2500'
Saturday Evening 1000'
Saturday Night 500'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
West Central Elevation
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 2500'
Saturday Evening 1500'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
West South Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 2000'
Saturday Night 1500'
Sunday Morning 1000'
Sunday Afternoon 1500'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night* 3000'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 2000'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 2000'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
East North Elevation
Friday Evening 1500'
Friday Night* 2000'
Saturday Morning* 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 2000'
Saturday Night 500'
Sunday Morning 0'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
East Central Elevation
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday Morning* 2500'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 2000'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday Morning 500'
Sunday Afternoon 1000'
East South Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night* 3000'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 3500'
Saturday Evening 2500'
Saturday Night 1500'
Sunday Morning 1000'
Sunday Afternoon 1500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night* 3000'
Saturday Morning* 3500'
Saturday Afternoon 4000'
Saturday Evening 3000'
Saturday Night 2500'
Sunday Morning 1500'
Sunday Afternoon 2000'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Friday Night Saturday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 32 / 26 30 / 20
West North 27 / 24 27 / 20
West Central 27 / 25 28 / 23
West South 27 / 26 29 / 25
Stevens Pass 28 / 26 30 / 24
Snoqualmie Pass 28 / 26 29 / 24
East North 26 / 21 28 / 21
East Central 27 / 25 29 / 24
East South 29 / 26 30 / 24
Mt. Hood 29 / 26 31 / 27
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 32 / 26
Saturday 30 / 20
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 27 / 24
Saturday 27 / 20
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 27 / 25
Saturday 28 / 23
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 27 / 26
Saturday 29 / 25
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 28 / 26
Saturday 30 / 24
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 28 / 26
Saturday 29 / 24
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 26 / 21
Saturday 28 / 21
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 27 / 25
Saturday 29 / 24
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 29 / 26
Saturday 30 / 24
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 29 / 26
Saturday 31 / 27

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Friday Evening Friday Night Saturday Morning Saturday Afternoon
Olympics SW 25-35 SW 30-40 SW 20-30 WSW 15-25
West North SSW 30-40 SSW 30-40 SW 20-30 WSW 20-30
West Central SW 25-35 SW 30-40 SW 25-35 WSW 25-35
West South SW 25-35 SW 25-35 SW 20-30 WSW 20-30
Stevens Pass WSW 20-30 SW 20-30 WSW 20-30 WSW 20-30
Snoqualmie Pass WSW 20-30 SW 20-30 WSW 20-30 W 20-30
East North SW 25-35 SW 25-35 SW 25-35 WSW 30-40
East Central WSW 25-35 SW 30-40 WSW 30-40 WSW 30-40
East South WSW 20-30 SW 25-35 SW 30-40 WSW 20-30
Mt. Hood WSW 40-55 SW 40-55 SW 40-55 WSW 25-35
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening SW 25-35
Friday Night SW 30-40
Saturday Morning SW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon WSW 15-25
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening SSW 30-40
Friday Night SSW 30-40
Saturday Morning SW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon WSW 20-30
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening SW 25-35
Friday Night SW 30-40
Saturday Morning SW 25-35
Saturday Afternoon WSW 25-35
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening SW 25-35
Friday Night SW 25-35
Saturday Morning SW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon WSW 20-30
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WSW 20-30
Friday Night SW 20-30
Saturday Morning WSW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon WSW 20-30
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WSW 20-30
Friday Night SW 20-30
Saturday Morning WSW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon W 20-30
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening SW 25-35
Friday Night SW 25-35
Saturday Morning SW 25-35
Saturday Afternoon WSW 30-40
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WSW 25-35
Friday Night SW 30-40
Saturday Morning WSW 30-40
Saturday Afternoon WSW 30-40
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WSW 20-30
Friday Night SW 25-35
Saturday Morning SW 30-40
Saturday Afternoon WSW 20-30
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WSW 40-55
Friday Night SW 40-55
Saturday Morning SW 40-55
Saturday Afternoon WSW 25-35

Extended Weather Synopsis

The Gulf of Alaska low wabbles southward Sunday night and centers off the PNW coastline on Monday. This turns the flow increasingly southerly with light snow shower activity and cold temperatures across the region. Monday night and Tuesday the stronger energy associated with the trough shifts south toward California, but a surface low should kick off some more light snow showers and with light winds and with light winds the result should be low-density fluff.

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Tuesday
West North 500' 1000' 1000' 500'
Snoqualmie Pass 500' 1500' 1000' 500'
Mt. Hood 1000' 2000' 1000' 1000'
West North Elevation
Sunday Night 500'
Monday 1000'
Monday Night 1000'
Tuesday 500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Night 500'
Monday 1500'
Monday Night 1000'
Tuesday 500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Night 1000'
Monday 2000'
Monday Night 1000'
Tuesday 1000'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 10, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.