Issued: 1:53 PM PST Sunday, December 25, 2016
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Sunday & Monday

A shortwave ridge moving over the PNW will provide us with some fine weather on Christmas Day. Freezing levels will be low but at least skies will be mostly clear with light winds.

The fair weather will not last long as a strong westerly jet once again becomes squarely aimed at Washington Monday night.  High clouds should increase overnight and through Monday morning as moisture begins to stream into the region.

Cloud ceilings should lower quickly Monday afternoon with light rain and snow spreading south from the Olympics and north Cascades. Alpine winds will also ramp up quickly Monday afternoon, so expect reduced visibility late in the day if above treeline. 

The bulk of precipitation from the incoming frontal system will move in Monday night.  A slight warming trend should take place overnight out ahead of and with the frontal passage for the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades with snow levels peaking near 3000 feet after midnight through the early morning hours of Tuesday for the central Cascades including Snoqualmie Pass and 3500 feet for the south Washington Cascades including Crystal, Paradise and White Pass.

Forecast models from this morning seem a notch cooler and faster with the precipitation for Monday night but not enough for drastic changes in the forecast. 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Sunday

Mostly sunny. 

Sunday Night

Mostly clear becoming mostly cloudy overnight with increasing high clouds. 

Monday

Light rain and snow. Becoming windy in the afternoon. 

Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Sunday Afternoon

Mostly sunny. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Mostly clear becoming mostly cloudy late Sunday night with increasing high clouds. Light snow developing north Cascades Monday morning.  

Monday Afternoon

Clouds lowering with alpine winds increasing. Light snow. 

East slopes of the Washington Cascades
Sunday Afternoon

Mostly sunny. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Mostly clear becoming mostly cloudy late Sunday night with increasing high clouds. Very light snow developing northeast Cascades Monday morning.  

Monday Afternoon

Clouds lowering with alpine winds increasing. Light snow northeast Cascades spreading south in the afternoon. 

Mt. Hood Area
Sunday

Mostly sunny. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy late Sunday night with increasing high clouds.

Monday Afternoon

Becoming mostly cloudy with alpine winds increasing.  

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level 1000' 500' 500' ' ' 500' ' 1000'
Monday Morning Snow Level * 2000' 500' 500' ' ' 1000' ' 1500'
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level * 3000' 1500' 500' ' ' 1500' ' 2000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
1000'
Monday Morning Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday - Sunday Night Freezing Level
1000'
Monday Morning Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon - Monday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
400'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Monday Monday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.10 0.50 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.10 1.00 - 1.50
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0.50 - 0.75
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 0 - 1.00
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 1.00 - 1.50
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 0 - 0.75
Paradise LT 0.10 0 - 1.50
White Pass LT 0.10 0.75 - 1.00
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 0 - 1.00
LT 0.10 1.00 - 1.50

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday VAR 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 --- - W 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10 SW 0 - 10 SW 0 - 10 --- - SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon SW 20 - 30 S 15 - 25 S 15 - 25 --- - SW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon S 15 - 25
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon S 15 - 25
Monday Night WSW 20 - 35
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Sunday --- -
Sunday Night - Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday W 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Monday Night WSW 35 - 45
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon S 15 - 25
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday VAR 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon S 15 - 25
Monday Night WSW 20 - 35
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday --- -
Sunday Night - Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday W 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning SW 0 - 10
Monday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Monday Night WSW 35 - 45

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday NW 0 - 10 NW 0 - 10 NW 0 - 10 --- - NW 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning WNW 10 - 20 WNW 10 - 20 WNW 10 - 20 --- - WNW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SW 30 - 40 SW 30 - 40 SW 30 - 45 --- - WSW 25 - 35
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday NW 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Monday Night SW 35 - 50
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday NW 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Monday Night SW 40 - 50
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday NW 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SW 30 - 45
Monday Night WSW 50 - 60
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday --- -
Sunday Night - Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday NW 0 - 10
Sunday Night - Monday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Monday Night WSW 60 - 70

Extended Weather Synopsis for Monday night through Monday

The stormy snow pattern that began on Monday night will continue through Tuesday night with strong westerly flow enhancing orographic showers along the west slopes of the Olympics and Cascades including Mt. Hood.  After snow levels peak early Tuesday morning, snow levels will quickly settle down into the 2000-2500 ft range by late morning and slightly cool further during the day. 

A trailing trough may invigorate shower activity late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Shower intensity should decrease and become more scattered in nature Tuesday night, with more moderate accumulations possible if a convergence zone forms. 

Westerly winds will stay strong throughout this event, especially hammering the Mt. Hood area. 

An upper level ridge will temporarily build along the West Coast on Wednesday, pushing the jet stream north and bringing precipitation to an end. There should be some partial clearing for the south Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood on Wednesday.

A warm front should brush the north Cascades and Olympics Wednesday night with light rain and snow.  As the associated surface low curls NE into the central B.C. coast Wednesday night, the cold front will sag south spreading light to moderate precipitation to the central Washington Cascades while Mt. Hood stays dry.  A warming trend on Wednesday night and Thursday should be initially muted by strong easterly flow developing in the Cascades Passes. 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood area
Tuesday - Tuesday Evening

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow showers west slopes of the Olympics and Cascades and Mt. Hood.  Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers east slopes of the Cascades. Windy. Cooling trend. 

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered light snow showers, occasionally moderate west slopes of the Cascades. 

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy north Cascades and Olympics. Partly cloudy south Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood.  

Wednesday Night

Cloudy. Light rain and snow developing Olympics and north Cascades. 

Thursday

Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow Olympics and Cascades. Mostly cloudy Mt. Hood.  Slight warming trend. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Tuesday Morning Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 3000' - 4000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 3000'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 500' - 1500' 1500' - 2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 1000' - 2000' 3000' - 4000' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
2500' - 3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Snow Level
500' - 1500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Snow Level
4500' - 5500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 25, 2016

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