Issued: 3:03 PM PST Wednesday, November 16, 2016
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Wednesday & Friday

We had some new snow Tuesday and Tuesday night to ring in the new season of Mountain Weather Forecasting!  West slope stations showed 5-10" above 4000 feet with a bit less down to Snoqualmie Pass, at Hurricane Ridge and along the east slopes. The new snow helped offset an otherwise dismal first Climatological Snowdepth Summary of the season. 

A broad upper trough over western Canada and the US will keep light showers and a cool air mass overhead through Thursday morning. Light additional snow accumulations are possible due to shower activity.  

Weak upper level ridging offshore on Thursday will amplify as it pushes inland over the West Coast Thursday night and Friday morning. A low pressure system outside of 130W and higher pressure east of the Cascades will help crank up light to moderate easterly flow Friday and Friday night dampening the warming trend aloft felt west of the Cascades. 

Weather Forecast

Olympics, Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered light rain and snow showers tapering down overnight. 

Thursday

Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain and snow showers. 

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level 3000' 2500' 3000' ' ' 3000' ' 3500'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level 2500' 2000' 2500' ' ' 2500' ' 2500'
Thursday Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3000' ' ' 3000' ' 3500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Thursday Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Thursday Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Thursday Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Thursday Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Friday Friday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Washington Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Paradise LT 0.25 LT 0.10
White Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 LT 0.10
0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning SW 0 - 10 SSW 0 - 10 W 0 - 10 --- - WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon S 0 - 10 S 0 - 10 SE 0 - 10 --- - SE 0 - 10
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning SW 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon S 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning SSW 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon S 0 - 10
Thursday Night E 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning W 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning SW 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon S 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning SSW 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon S 0 - 10
Thursday Night E 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning W 0 - 10
Thursday Afternoon SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning W 5 - 15 W 5 - 15 WNW 5 - 15 --- - WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SW 0 - 10 WSW 0 - 10 WSW 5 - 15 --- - WSW 0 - 10
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning W 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SW 0 - 10
Thursday Night S 0 - 10
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning W 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 0 - 10
Thursday Night S 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Night S 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Morning WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 0 - 10
Thursday Night S 15 - 25

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Friday

An occluded front will spread light precipitation along with slowly lowering cloud bases inland Friday afternoon and night.  The frontal boundary will begin to split as it passes through the Cascades Saturday morning with the main energy diving south into northern California, leaving our area with periods of mainly light precipitation.

A stronger shortwave may rotate through on Sunday...or we may have generally disorganized showers. Either way forecast models are having a better time agreeing that there should be a slow warming trend for the latter half of the weekend as the milder Pacific air mixes into the Cascades. The next splitting frontal system will likely impact the area on Tuesday. 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Friday

Increasing clouds Friday with light precipitation developing along the Olympics and Cascade crest in the afternoon.  

Friday Night

Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. 

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with periods of light rain and snow. 

Saturday Night - Sunday

Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers, potentially heavy at times. Slight warming trend. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Friday - Friday Night Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 2500' - 3500' 3000' - 4000' *
Saturday Snow Level 3500' - 4500' 3000' - 4000' 5000' - 6500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday - Friday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Saturday Night - Sunday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday - Friday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Saturday Night - Sunday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday - Friday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Snow Level
5000' - 6500'
Saturday Night - Sunday Snow Level
5000' - 6000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Apr 23, 2016

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

Mountain Weather Forecasts will be issued around 130 PM daily, 7 days a week, until the full winter forecast schedule takes effect. Weekend Avalanche and Snow Outlooks will be issued weekly on Thursdays at 6 pm until full winter forecasting begins.