Issued: 2:46 PM PST Saturday, March 5, 2016
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Saturday & Monday

PM Update: Adjusted Day 1 and Day 2 precipitation forecasts and raised Saturday night snow levels. 

A broad upper level trough of low pressure in the northeast Pacific continues to rotate low pressure systems up along our coastline towards the British Columbia coast.  A front passed through early this morning with generally light rain and snow, except locally heavy at Mt. Baker. Shower activity should quickly ease off later this morning and snow levels will remain mild. High clouds ahead of the next system is beginning to spread over the area from south to north this afternoon.  

A disorganized warm front will lift north overnight, with a brief burst of moderate precipitation favoring the volcanoes, southerly slopes including Crystal mountain, and the east slopes. The cold front will swing through in the early morning hours initiating a cooling trend early Sunday morning. 

The broad trough will begin to move over the area with a couple of upper level shortwaves swinging through to enhance shower activity Sunday and Sunday night. Additionally, with cold air aloft the air mass will be unstable enough to support a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon. The cooling trend will be slow on Sunday and snow levels will temporarily lower during heavier showers. 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Saturday Afternoon

Mostly sunny with increasing high clouds. Mild. 

Saturday Night

Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. Windy. Cooling trend late. 

Sunday

Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. 

Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Saturday Afternoon

Partly sunny with increasing high clouds. Mild. 

Saturday Night

Light to moderate rain and snow, heaviest volcanoes and southerly slopes. Windy predominately central and south Cascades.

Sunday

Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Slow cooling trend. Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. 

East slopes of the Washington Cascades
Saturday Afternoon

Partly sunny with increasing high clouds. Mild. 

Saturday Night

Light to moderate rain and snow. Increasing winds overnight.  

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers. Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Cooling trend.

Mt. Hood Area
Saturday Afternoon

Cloudy with light rain and snow developing. Winds increasing in the afternoon. Mild. 

Saturday Night

Moderate rain and snow in the evening, becoming light to moderate after midnight. Windy.  

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Slow cooling trend. Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. 

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level * 6000' 6000' 5500' ' ' 6000' ' 7500'
Saturday Evening Snow Level * 6000' 6000' 6000' ' ' 6500' ' 7000'
Saturday Night Snow Level 4000' 5500' 5500' ' ' 5000' ' 4500'
Sunday Snow Level 3500' 3500' 4000' ' ' 4000' ' 4000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
3000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
5500'
Sunday Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
2500'
Washington Pass Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
5500'
Sunday Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
2500'
Leavenworth Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Sunday Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Sunday Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
5000'
Sunday Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
3000'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Sunday Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Evening Snow Level
7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
4500'
Sunday Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
3000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Monday Monday
Hurricane Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.00 - 1.50 0.75 - 1.00
Washington Pass 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Stevens Pass 0 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50
Mission Ridge 0 - 0.75 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0 - 1.00 0.25 - 0.50
Paradise 1.00 - 1.50 0.50 - 0.75
White Pass 0 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows 0 - 1.00 0 - 0.50
0 - 1.00 0 - 0.75

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Saturday Afternoon SE 15 - 25 E 5 - 15 SE 15 - 25 --- - ESE 20 - 30
Saturday Evening SSE 20 - 30 ESE 10 - 20 ESE 20 - 35 --- - SW 10 - 20
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 15 - 30 SW 15 - 30 SW 20 - 30 --- - SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20 SSW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 --- - SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Saturday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Saturday Evening SSE 20 - 30
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Afternoon E 5 - 15
Saturday Evening ESE 10 - 20
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SSW 10 - 20
Sunday Night S 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Saturday Evening ESE 20 - 35
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 0 - 10
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Evening --- -
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning --- -
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Afternoon ESE 20 - 30
Saturday Evening SW 10 - 20
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night VAR 0 - 10
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Saturday Evening SSE 20 - 30
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon E 5 - 15
Saturday Evening ESE 10 - 20
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SSW 10 - 20
Sunday Night S 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon SE 15 - 25
Saturday Evening ESE 20 - 35
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 0 - 10
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Evening --- -
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning --- -
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon ESE 20 - 30
Saturday Evening SW 10 - 20
Saturday Night - Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night VAR 0 - 10

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Saturday Afternoon SSE 10 - 20 S 10 - 20 SSE 25 - 35 --- - S 45 - 55
Saturday Night S 35 - 50 S 30 - 45 SW 40 - 55 --- - SW 45 - 60
Sunday SW 20 - 30 SW 25 - 35 SW 25 - 35 --- - SW 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon SSE 10 - 20
Saturday Night S 35 - 50
Sunday SW 20 - 30
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon S 10 - 20
Saturday Night S 30 - 45
Sunday SW 25 - 35
Sunday Night SW 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon SSE 25 - 35
Saturday Night SW 40 - 55
Sunday SW 25 - 35
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Night --- -
Sunday --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Saturday Afternoon S 45 - 55
Saturday Night SW 45 - 60
Sunday SW 30 - 40
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20

Extended Weather Synopsis for Monday night through Monday

The longwave trough axis should pass through the PNW on Monday, continuing an unstable profile, slight chance of thunder, and scattered showers. 

A splitting front will approach on Tuesday, quickly pushing a shortwave ridge to the east by Tuesday afternoon and reintroducing light rain and snow to the region. 

Models disagree on positioning of the heaviest precipitation and timing, but by late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the GFS indicates a new impulse along the old frontal boundary renewing precipitation across the area with potentially heavier rain and snow over Mt. Hood. The moisture plume may extend north Wednesday night. 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Monday

Scattered light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. 

Monday Night - Tuesday Morning

Mostly cloudy with isolated light rain and snow showers. 

Tuesday Afternoon

Increasing clouds with light rain and snow developing. 

Tuesday Night - Wednesday

Light to moderate rain and snow, potentially heavy Mt. Hood on Wednesday. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Monday Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000'
Monday Night - Tuesday Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 1000' - 2000' 1500' - 2500'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2500' - 3500' 3000' - 4000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Monday Night - Tuesday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Monday Night - Tuesday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Monday Night - Tuesday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
5500' - 6500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Mar 5, 2016

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.