Issued: 7:24 AM PST Sunday, January 17, 2016
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Sunday & Thursday

An upper level low in the Northeast Pacific continues to steer frontal systems into the Pacific Northwest, with fronts passing through our area about every day. 

Today's frontal system has already spread mid and high cloud cover over the area and light precipitation has begun over the Olympics and Mt. Hood. After the frontal passage early this afternoon, light to moderate showers in SW flow should favor Mt. Baker and Mt. Rainier with heavier precipitation. Snow levels will once again vary along the west slopes, with the Cascade Passes staying cool through late this evening, while areas further west will see a bump up during the day.  Mt. Baker snow levels are expected to bump up mid-day to 4000-4500 feet, while Crystal/Paradise snow levels will also rise to 4000-4500 feet but during the afternoon.  A snow level rise to 3500-4000 feet is possible in the Cascade Passes late this evening or early overnight with a few hours of westerly flow. 

A trailing upper level shortwave trough should pass through late Sunday night continuing the shower activity, mainly along the west slopes. A transitory upper level ridge should move overhead on Monday, beginning a short-lived drying trend, although skies should remain mostly cloudy. Yet another weak front will pass through Monday night. 

Weather Forecast

Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes
Sunday

Light to moderate rain and snow developing this morning and becoming light to moderate showers early in the afternoon. Warming trend away from the Cascade Passes. Moderate to occasionally heavier showers Mt. Baker and Mt. Rainier this afternoon.  

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Slight warming trend Cascade Passes overnight with switch to west winds. 

Monday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy with isolated rain and snow showers. Increasing high clouds late in the afternoon.  

East slopes of the Washington Cascades
Sunday

Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow developing this morning and becoming light rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers. 

Monday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain and snow showers near the Cascade crest.

Mt. Hood Area
Sunday

Light to moderate rain and snow becoming moderate showers early in the afternoon. Slight cooling trend late in the day. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers.

Monday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy with isolated rain and snow showers. Increasing high clouds late in the afternoon.  

Olympics
Sunday

Light to moderate rain and snow becoming light to moderate showers mid-day. Cooling trend in the afternoon. 

Sunday Night - Monday Morning

Mostly cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. 

Monday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy with isolated rain and snow showers. Increasing high clouds early in the afternoon.  

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Sunday Morning Snow Level * 5500' 3000' 2500' ' ' 3000' ' 5000'
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level * 5500' 4000' 2500' ' ' 2500' ' 6000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level * 4000' 3500' 3000' ' ' 3000' ' 5500'
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level 3500' 3500' 3000' ' ' 3500' ' 4000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level * 4000' 3500' 3000' ' ' 3500' ' 4500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Morning Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Mid-day Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night - Monday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Thursday
Hurricane Ridge 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area 0 - 1.50 0.50 - 0.75
Washington Pass 0 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Stevens Pass 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass 0.75 - 1.00 LT 0.25
Mission Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0.75 - 1.00 LT 0.25
Paradise 1.00 - 1.50 0 - 0.50
White Pass 0 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 1.00 - 1.50 0.25 - 0.50
0 - 1.50 0 - 0.50

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30 S 15 - 30 SE 20 - 30 --- - S 15 - 25
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20 SW 15 - 25 SW 15 - 25 --- - SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 --- - WSW 15 - 25
Monday S 5 - 15 S 10 - 20 SE 10 - 20 --- - S 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday S 5 - 15
Monday Night SW 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Morning S 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday S 10 - 20
Monday Night S 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Morning SE 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday SE 10 - 20
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Sunday Morning --- -
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Monday --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Morning S 15 - 25
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night WSW 15 - 25
Monday S 10 - 20
Monday Night SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning SW 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday S 5 - 15
Monday Night SW 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning S 15 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday S 10 - 20
Monday Night S 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning SE 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night SW 10 - 20
Monday SE 10 - 20
Monday Night SE 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning --- -
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Monday --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning S 15 - 25
Sunday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Sunday Night WSW 15 - 25
Monday S 10 - 20
Monday Night SW 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday Morning SSW 25 - 35 S 25 - 35 SW 35 - 45 --- - SW 35 - 50
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night SW 15 - 30 SW 25 - 35 SW 20 - 30 --- - SW 25 - 35
Monday Morning SW 10 - 20 W 15 - 25 SW 15 - 25 --- - WSW 20 - 30
Monday Afternoon SSW 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 SSW 15 - 25 --- - SW 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning SSW 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night SW 15 - 30
Monday Morning SW 10 - 20
Monday Afternoon SSW 15 - 25
Monday Night SSW 25 - 35
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning S 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night SW 25 - 35
Monday Morning W 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning SW 35 - 45
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night SW 20 - 30
Monday Morning SW 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon SSW 15 - 25
Monday Night SW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning --- -
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night --- -
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday Morning SW 35 - 50
Sunday Afternoon - Sunday Night SW 25 - 35
Monday Morning WSW 20 - 30
Monday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Monday Night SW 35 - 45

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

A low pressure system should develop off the CA/OR coast Tuesday and lift NE over Oregon during the day. Forecast models differ wildly for storm track and precipitation amounts on Tuesday, with the potential for heavy precipitation at Mt. Hood with only light amounts further north over Washington state. 

A brief shot of NW flow aloft with the trailing trough passing through should deliver a brief period of moderate showers mainly along west slopes Tuesday night before showers taper down during the day Wednesday as another weak upper level ridge builds over the area. 

On Thursday a strong frontal system should impact the PNW, potentially pumping in warmer air along the west slopes away from the Cascade Passes. Phew!

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood area
Tuesday

Cloudy with light rain and snow Olympics and Washington Cascades. Moderate to possibly heavy rain and snow Mt. Hood. 

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning

Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers, except moderate along the west slopes of the Cascades.  

Wednesday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. 

Wednesday Night

Moderate rain and snow developing Olympics and spreading inland overnight.  Warming trend Olympics, Mt. Hood and west slopes of the Cascades away from the Passes. 

Thursday

Moderate rain and snow, occasionally heavy along the west slopes Thursday. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Tuesday - Tuesday Night Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 2000' - 3000' 3500' - 4500' *
Wednesday - Wednesday Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' *
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 2500' - 3500' 6000' - 7000' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Tuesday - Tuesday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday - Wednesday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday - Tuesday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday - Wednesday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday - Tuesday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday - Wednesday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night - Thursday Morning Snow Level
6000' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
5500' - 6500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 16, 2016

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