Issued: 2:07 PM PST Thursday, December 16, 2021
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

An upper level disturbance riding down the backside of a cool upper trough continues to produce mountain snow showers across the area. While most showers are light, moderate snowfall can be found near a Puget Sound Convergence zone that's trained into the central Cascades between Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass. The convergence banding with locally heavier showers will continue through this afternoon and begin to weaken in the evening as it shifts slightly southward. Tonight, low level clouds should linger longest from Stevens Pass down toward Mt Hood along the west slopes of the Cascades with at least partial clearing in other areas.  

Weak ridging will pass over the area on Friday as a new frontal system winds up offshore. Any clearing will be short-lived as high clouds stream over all areas by mid-late morning.  Otherwise, a dry, cool day with predominately light winds is on tap for Friday.

 A deepening low pressure system will track towards the central British Columbia coast Friday night into Saturday. Warm frontal precipitation will begin over the Olympics and north Cascades Friday night with the precipitation reaching all the way to Mt Hood on Saturday. The most likely scenario is that the heaviest precipitation is confined to the central and north Cascades on Saturday, but that axis may shift as we get closer to the event.  The track of the low should surge milder air into the region on Saturday. While all areas will see rising snow levels, this pattern could result in a wintry mix, including periods of freezing rain, for Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes and for areas just east of the Passes. Rain looks likely to reach mid-elevations at Mt Hood, Paradise/Crystal areas and perhaps road level at Snoqualmie Pass later in the day. The east slopes of the Cascades, especially north of Highway 2 should hold onto snow for the duration of the event. This storm should have something different for everyone. 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a few light snow showers possible in the evening.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a few light snow showers possible in the evening.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to locally moderate snow showers this evening, then cloudy after midnight.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the evening.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate snow showers this evening, becoming scattered light snow showers after midnight. Moderate west winds at Pass level becoming variable overnight. Moderate to strong ridgeline winds slowly easing overnight.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day. Light east winds at Pass level.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate snow showers this evening, becoming scattered light snow showers late. Moderate west winds at Pass level becoming variable overnight. Strong ridgeline winds slowly easing overnight.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day. Light east winds at Pass level.
Thursday Night Cloudy with scattered light snow showers in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy after midnight.
Friday Partly sunny in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Cloudy with scattered light snow showers in the evening, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight.
Friday Partly sunny in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Cloudy with scattered light snow showers in the evening, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight.
Friday Partly sunny in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate snow showers this evening, becoming scattered light snow showers late. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming overcast with increasing high clouds during the day.

Precipitation (in)

Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Saturday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0 0 0.25 1.00
Mt Baker Ski Area 0 0 0.25 - 0.50 1.00 - 1.50
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0 0 0.25 1.00
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 0 LT 0.25 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 0 LT 0.25 0.75
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Paradise 0 0 LT 0.25 0.50 - 0.75
White Pass LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Washington Pass 0 0 LT 0.25 0.75 -1.00
Mission Ridge 0 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Tieton River - Darland Mt. LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 0 LT 0.10 0.25
Timberline LT 0.25 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday 1.00
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday 1.00 - 1.50
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday 1.00
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday 0.75
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday 0.50 - 0.75
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday 0.75 -1.00
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.25
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday 0.25
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50

Snow Level (ft)

Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon* Friday Evening* Friday Night* Saturday Morning* Saturday Afternoon*
Olympics 1500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 2500' 3500' 5500' 4000'
West North 1000' 500' 1000' 1500' 500' 1000' 2500' 4500'
West Central 1500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 500' 1500' 3000' 5000'
West South 1500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 1000' 1500' 4500' 5500'
Stevens Pass 1500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 500' 500' 2500' 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass 1500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 1000' 1500' 4000' 5000'
East North 1000' 500' 1000' 1500' 0 0 1000' 1500'
East Central 1000' 1000' 1500' 1500' 0 500' 1500' 2000'
East South 1500' 1000' 1500' 2500' 1500' 1500' 2500' 4500'
Mt. Hood 2500' 2000' 2500' 3500' 3500' 4500' 6000' 6500'
Olympics Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2000'
Friday Evening* 2500'
Friday Night* 3500'
Saturday Morning* 5500'
Saturday Afternoon* 4000'
West North Elevation
Thursday Evening 1000'
Thursday Night 500'
Friday Morning 1000'
Friday Afternoon* 1500'
Friday Evening* 500'
Friday Night* 1000'
Saturday Morning* 2500'
Saturday Afternoon* 4500'
West Central Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2000'
Friday Evening* 500'
Friday Night* 1500'
Saturday Morning* 3000'
Saturday Afternoon* 5000'
West South Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2000'
Friday Evening* 1000'
Friday Night* 1500'
Saturday Morning* 4500'
Saturday Afternoon* 5500'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2000'
Friday Evening* 500'
Friday Night* 500'
Saturday Morning* 2500'
Saturday Afternoon* 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2000'
Friday Evening* 1000'
Friday Night* 1500'
Saturday Morning* 4000'
Saturday Afternoon* 5000'
East North Elevation
Thursday Evening 1000'
Thursday Night 500'
Friday Morning 1000'
Friday Afternoon* 1500'
Friday Evening* 0'
Friday Night* 0'
Saturday Morning* 1000'
Saturday Afternoon* 1500'
East Central Elevation
Thursday Evening 1000'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 1500'
Friday Evening* 0'
Friday Night* 500'
Saturday Morning* 1500'
Saturday Afternoon* 2000'
East South Elevation
Thursday Evening 1500'
Thursday Night 1000'
Friday Morning 1500'
Friday Afternoon* 2500'
Friday Evening* 1500'
Friday Night* 1500'
Saturday Morning* 2500'
Saturday Afternoon* 4500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 2000'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
Friday Evening* 3500'
Friday Night* 4500'
Saturday Morning* 6000'
Saturday Afternoon* 6500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Thursday Night Friday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 22 / 18 28 / 20
West North 20 / 15 25 / 16
West Central 23 / 16 26 / 18
West South 25 / 15 26 / 18
Stevens Pass 23 / 16 24 / 15
Snoqualmie Pass 23 / 15 24 / 17
East North 18 / 10 19 / 13
East Central 25 / 13 24 / 15
East South 23 / 16 25 / 17
Mt. Hood 28 / 23 30 / 23
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 22 / 18
Friday 28 / 20
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 20 / 15
Friday 25 / 16
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 23 / 16
Friday 26 / 18
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 25 / 15
Friday 26 / 18
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 23 / 16
Friday 24 / 15
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 23 / 15
Friday 24 / 17
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 18 / 10
Friday 19 / 13
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 25 / 13
Friday 24 / 15
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 23 / 16
Friday 25 / 17
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 28 / 23
Friday 30 / 23

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon
Olympics WNW 0-10 W 0-10 WSW 0-10 SW 5-15
West North VAR 0-10 SW 0-10 SW 0-10 SW 5-15
West Central NW 5-15 SW 0-10 SW 5-15 SW 5-15
West South W 10-20 W 5-15 WSW 5-15 SW 5-15
Stevens Pass WNW 5-15 W 5-15 W 5-15 W 5-15
Snoqualmie Pass WNW 10-20 W 5-15 W 10-20 W 5-15
East North WNW 10-20 WNW 5-15 WNW 5-15 W 10-20
East Central WNW 15-25 W 5-15 W 5-15 W 5-15
East South WNW 15-25 WNW 5-15 W 5-15 W 5-15
Mt. Hood W 25-35 WNW 15-25 W 10-20 W 10-20
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 0-10
Thursday Night W 0-10
Friday Morning WSW 0-10
Friday Afternoon SW 5-15
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening VAR 0-10
Thursday Night SW 0-10
Friday Morning SW 0-10
Friday Afternoon SW 5-15
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening NW 5-15
Thursday Night SW 0-10
Friday Morning SW 5-15
Friday Afternoon SW 5-15
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening W 10-20
Thursday Night W 5-15
Friday Morning WSW 5-15
Friday Afternoon SW 5-15
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 5-15
Thursday Night W 5-15
Friday Morning W 5-15
Friday Afternoon W 5-15
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 10-20
Thursday Night W 5-15
Friday Morning W 10-20
Friday Afternoon W 5-15
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 10-20
Thursday Night WNW 5-15
Friday Morning WNW 5-15
Friday Afternoon W 10-20
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 15-25
Thursday Night W 5-15
Friday Morning W 5-15
Friday Afternoon W 5-15
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WNW 15-25
Thursday Night WNW 5-15
Friday Morning W 5-15
Friday Afternoon W 5-15
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening W 25-35
Thursday Night WNW 15-25
Friday Morning W 10-20
Friday Afternoon W 10-20

Extended Weather Synopsis

The front will push through the Olympics Saturday afternoon and sweep southward across the Cascades Saturday night. Behind the front, the last gasp for low or mid-elevation rain along the west slopes and Passes will come to an end as colder air quickly filters in. The exception will be the Mt Hood area where the cold front looks unlikely to sweep through.  Instead, a new system forming along the old frontal boundary off the California coast will develop on Sunday. This should keep precipitation focused on the far southern Washington Cascades and Mt Hood area, with open questions to how far precipitation will shift back north on Sunday. 

Forecast details diverge further on Monday but we could be in for an interesting pattern.  Low pressure spinning off the California coast will try to spread moisture up in S-SW flow aloft.  Strong surface high pressure over the interior of British Columbia will drive colder interior air toward the Fraser River Valley. Besides the battle between air masses, SE flow along the east slopes of the Cascades could develop a favorable pattern for upslope snow on the traditionally drier side of the range. 

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night* Monday *
West North 1500' 2000' 0 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 2500' 2000' 2500'
Mt. Hood 6500' 5500' 5000' 3500'
West North Elevation
Saturday Night 1500'
Sunday 2000'
Sunday Night* 0'
Monday * 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 2500'
Sunday Night* 2000'
Monday * 2500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night 6500'
Sunday 5500'
Sunday Night* 5000'
Monday * 3500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 16, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.