Issued: 2:08 PM PST Wednesday, December 1, 2021
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

It feels almost tropical for the first day of December with mountain temps in the 40s and 50s and some 60s in the valleys and lowlands. The last in a series of atmospheric river events that have occurred over the last week will come to an end tonight as the frontal boundary finally shifts south from British Columbia towards the north Cascades, but loses its sub-tropical moisture tap in the process. The frontal boundary will hang up over the north/central Cascades with snow levels slowly lowering to 4500-6000' Wednesday night.  A few inches of snow may accumulate above these levels, particularly in the Mt Baker area down to the Mtn Loop highway through Thursday morning. While leftover showers will decrease along the west slopes of the Cascades during the day Thursday, low-level clouds will stick around for the central Cascades.  Other areas will be dry, but with periods of high clouds.  The strong westerly ridgeline winds and extreme alpine winds experienced in many areas since Tuesday will slowly start to decrease Wednesday into Thursday. 

The jet-stream positioning will largely stay unchanged through Friday over southern British Columbia with zonal westerly flow aloft. The relative cooling that does occur Wednesday night will struggle to push south and the result will be an exaggerated N-S freezing level gradient with the warmest freezing levels down near Mt Hood through the short term.  A developing frontal system offshore will merge with a broad upper trough swinging south from the Gulf of Alaska later Friday. While Friday will be a dry day overall, high and mid clouds will stream over the area and there is a chance that some precipitation will work its way into the central/northwest Cascades by Friday afternoon. 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Wednesday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain increasing after midnight.
Thursday Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to moderate rain and snow increasing in the evening. Strong winds becoming moderate overnight.
Thursday Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain becoming light to moderate rain and snow around midnight. Strong winds becoming moderate overnight.
Thursday Cloudy with light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Cloudy. Periods of light rain and snow late. Strong winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain becoming light rain and snow around midnight. Strong to moderate west winds at ridgeline and Pass level becoming moderate overnight.
Thursday Cloudy with light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Light to moderate west winds at Pass level.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain becoming light rain and snow after midnight. Strong west winds at ridgeline and Pass level.
Thursday Cloudy with light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Light to moderate west winds at Pass level.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain and snow near the crest. Strong winds.
Thursday Overcast with high clouds.
Wednesday Night Cloudy. Periods of light rain and snow near the crest after midnight. Strong winds.
Thursday Overcast with high clouds.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, then cloudy. Strong winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy with periods of high clouds.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy late. Strong winds.
Thursday Partly to mostly cloudy with periods of high clouds.

Precipitation (in)

Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 0 0 0
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.50 0 0 LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0 0
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0 0
Crystal Mt 0 0 0 0
Paradise 0 0 0 0
White Pass 0 LT 0.10 0 0
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0 0 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge 0 0 0 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0 0 0 0
Mt Hood Meadows 0 0 0 0
Timberline 0 0 0 0
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday LT 0.10
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0

Snow Level (ft)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon
Olympics 6500' 4500' 3000' 2500' 2500' 2500' 2500' 3000'
West North 6500' 4500' 3500' 3000' 2500' 1500' 2500' 3000'
West Central 7500' 5500' 4000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 5500' 5000'
West South 10000' 6500' 5000' 3500' 3500' 5500' 6500' 7000'
Stevens Pass 8500' 5500' 4500' 3000' 3000' 3000' 4500' 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass 9000' 6000' 4500' 3000' 3000' 3000' 6000' 5500'
East North 8000' 5500' 4500' 3500' 2500' 2500' 2500' 3500'
East Central 9000' 6500' 5500' 4000' 3500' 4500' 4500' 4500'
East South 10000' 7500' 5500' 5000' 5000' 6000' 7000' 7500'
Mt. Hood 11500' 11500' 6000' 6000' 6000' 9000' 9000' 8500'
Olympics Elevation
Wednesday Evening 6500'
Wednesday Night 4500'
Thursday Morning 3000'
Thursday Afternoon 2500'
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
West North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 6500'
Wednesday Night 4500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 1500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
West Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 7500'
Wednesday Night 5500'
Thursday Morning 4000'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 5500'
Friday Afternoon 5000'
West South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 10000'
Wednesday Night 6500'
Thursday Morning 5000'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 5500'
Friday Morning 6500'
Friday Afternoon 7000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 8500'
Wednesday Night 5500'
Thursday Morning 4500'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 9000'
Wednesday Night 6000'
Thursday Morning 4500'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 6000'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
East North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 8000'
Wednesday Night 5500'
Thursday Morning 4500'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 3500'
East Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 9000'
Wednesday Night 6500'
Thursday Morning 5500'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 4500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 4500'
East South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 10000'
Wednesday Night 7500'
Thursday Morning 5500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 5000'
Thursday Night 6000'
Friday Morning 7000'
Friday Afternoon 7500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening 11500'
Wednesday Night 11500'
Thursday Morning 6000'
Thursday Afternoon 6000'
Thursday Evening 6000'
Thursday Night 9000'
Friday Morning 9000'
Friday Afternoon 8500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Wednesday Night Thursday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 39 / 31 30 / 25
West North 38 / 30 29 / 25
West Central 39 / 33 32 / 27
West South 40 / 36 35 / 29
Stevens Pass 40 / 34 33 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 41 / 33 32 / 28
East North 38 / 32 31 / 28
East Central 42 / 36 35 / 30
East South 44 / 37 36 / 32
Mt. Hood 45 / 38 38 / 34
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 39 / 31
Thursday 30 / 25
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 38 / 30
Thursday 29 / 25
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 39 / 33
Thursday 32 / 27
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 40 / 36
Thursday 35 / 29
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 40 / 34
Thursday 33 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 41 / 33
Thursday 32 / 28
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 38 / 32
Thursday 31 / 28
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 42 / 36
Thursday 35 / 30
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 44 / 37
Thursday 36 / 32
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 45 / 38
Thursday 38 / 34

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon
Olympics SW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 5-15 W 5-15
West North SW 15-25 WSW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 5-15
West Central SW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 5-15 W 10-20
West South WSW 15-25 W 10-20 W 10-20 W 10-20
Stevens Pass W 15-25 W 15-25 W 10-20 W 5-15
Snoqualmie Pass W 25-35 W 20-30 W 15-25 W 10-20
East North W 35-50 W 25-35 W 20-30 W 15-25
East Central W 35-50 W 30-40 W 20-30 W 15-25
East South W 30-40 W 25-35 W 20-30 W 15-25
Mt. Hood W 20-30 W 25-35 W 20-30 W 15-25
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 10-20
Wednesday Night SW 5-15
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon W 5-15
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 15-25
Wednesday Night WSW 10-20
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon SW 5-15
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 10-20
Wednesday Night SW 5-15
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 15-25
Wednesday Night W 10-20
Thursday Morning W 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 15-25
Wednesday Night W 15-25
Thursday Morning W 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 5-15
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 25-35
Wednesday Night W 20-30
Thursday Morning W 15-25
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 35-50
Wednesday Night W 25-35
Thursday Morning W 20-30
Thursday Afternoon W 15-25
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 35-50
Wednesday Night W 30-40
Thursday Morning W 20-30
Thursday Afternoon W 15-25
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 30-40
Wednesday Night W 25-35
Thursday Morning W 20-30
Thursday Afternoon W 15-25
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 20-30
Wednesday Night W 25-35
Thursday Morning W 20-30
Thursday Afternoon W 15-25

Extended Weather Synopsis

Once the developing low pressure system merges with the upper trough, precipitation should quickly spread over the area Friday night.  The upper trough will usher in the coolest temperatures in some time, and snow levels should nose-dive into the 1500-3000' range over Washington State with slightly warmer snow levels for Mt Hood. This system looks fast-moving, so snowfall potential will likely be capped as the system quickly exists Saturday afternoon. Leftover snow showers will become scattered Saturday night.  Conditions look dry and cool for Sunday as a potentially stronger Pacific frontal system strengthens offshore and is likely to impact the PNW on Monday. Next week looks wet with cooler snow levels relative to what we've seen as of late.  

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
West North 1500' 1000' 1000' 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 1500' 1000' 1500'
Mt. Hood 6500' 4000' 2000' 2500'
West North Elevation
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday 1000'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night 2000'
Saturday 1500'
Saturday Night 1000'
Sunday 1500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night 6500'
Saturday 4000'
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 2500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Nov 30, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.