Issued: 2:26 PM PST Thursday, January 31, 2019
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Tuesday

An approaching frontal system has blanketed the north and central Cascades in a high overcast this afternoon. Areas further south will begin to fill in tonight as the system approaches the coast.

Precipitation should begin for the Olympics and Mt. Baker area later this evening, but precipitation won't make much progress inland as the front becomes more north-south oriented and slows. Locally moderate to even heavy precipitation is expected in the Mt. Baker area on Friday, with a secondary bullseye for the Paradise/Crystal area. 

Snow levels will lower late tonight but won't cool further until the front slowly kicks east of the Cascades Friday night. Snow levels look rather unimpressive (mild) with this system. Easterly flow may initially drag down snow levels to 4000-4500 feet for Stevens and Snoqualmie early Friday morning, but snow levels are expected to quickly settle above all the major Pass levels on Friday. 

The frontal boundary will split and shear as it passes inland Friday evening with showers quickly diminishing toward Saturday morning. The Pacific Northwest will be in the weather equivalent of no man's land on Saturday with westerly (zonal) flow over the area and storm systems located to our north and south. Snow/freezing levels for the Cascades will stay constant on Saturday in the 4000-5000 ft range.  

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Thursday Night Clouds lowering overnight with light rain and snow developing. Slow cooling trend.
Mt. Baker
Thursday Night Clouds lowering overnight with light rain and snow developing. Windy. Slow cooling trend.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Thursday Night Increasing and lowering clouds overnight. Slow cooling trend.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Thursday Night Increasing and lowering clouds overnight. Light rain and snow developing late. Light to moderate east wind in the Passes. Slow cooling trend.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Thursday Night Increasing and lowering clouds overnight. Slight chance of light rain and snow late. Slow cooling trend.
Mt. Hood
Thursday Night Mostly clear becoming mostly cloudy overnight.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening Snow Level * 6500' 5000' 5000' 5500' 5500' 6000' 7000' 7500'
Thursday Night Snow Level * 6000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 6000' 6500' 7000'
Friday Morning Snow Level * 6000' 5000' 4000' 4500' 4000' 4500' 6500' 6500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level 5000' 5000' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5500' 6000' 6000'
Friday Evening Snow Level 4000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5500' 6000' 6000'
Friday Night Snow Level 4000' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4500' 4500' 5500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Washington Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Leavenworth Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
Friday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Friday Night Snow Level
4500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
6000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
6000'
Friday Night Snow Level
5500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
5500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Tuesday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 1.00 - 1.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Leavenworth 0 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge 0 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Crystal Mt 0 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Paradise 0 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
White Pass 0 0.25 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows 0 LT 0.25 0.25 LT 0.10
0 0.25 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Tuesday LT 0.10
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday 1.00 - 1.50
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night LT 0.25
Tuesday LT 0.10
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday Night LT 0.25
Tuesday LT 0.10
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday 0.75
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night 0.25
Tuesday LT 0.10
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.10

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening SW 15 - 25 S 15 - 25 S 5 - 15 S 10 - 20 SW 5 - 15
Thursday Night S 15 - 30 S 20 - 35 S 10 - 20 SSE 15 - 25 SW 5 - 15
Friday Morning SW 10 - 20 S 20 - 35 SE 15 - 25 SSE 20 - 30 SSW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening SW 15 - 25
Thursday Night S 15 - 30
Friday Morning SW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening S 15 - 25
Thursday Night S 20 - 35
Friday Morning S 20 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening S 5 - 15
Thursday Night S 10 - 20
Friday Morning SE 15 - 25
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Thursday Evening S 10 - 20
Thursday Night SSE 15 - 25
Friday Morning SSE 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening SW 5 - 15
Thursday Night SW 5 - 15
Friday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 15 - 25
Thursday Night S 15 - 30
Friday Morning SW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 15 - 25
Thursday Night S 20 - 35
Friday Morning S 20 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 5 - 15
Thursday Night S 10 - 20
Friday Morning SE 15 - 25
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 10 - 20
Thursday Night SSE 15 - 25
Friday Morning SSE 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 5 - 15
Thursday Night SW 5 - 15
Friday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening SW 25 - 35 SW 25 - 35 SW 25 - 35 SW 30 - 40 SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 35 - 45 SW 30 - 40 SW 30 - 40 SW 40 - 50 SW 35 - 45
Friday Morning SSW 35 - 45 SW 35 - 45 SW 45 - 55 SW 50 - 60 SW 40 - 50
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 35 - 45
Friday Morning SSW 35 - 45
Friday Afternoon SW 25 - 40
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 35 - 45
Friday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 45 - 55
Friday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 40 - 50
Friday Morning SW 50 - 60
Friday Afternoon SW 35 - 45
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 35 - 45
Friday Morning SW 40 - 50
Friday Afternoon SW 35 - 45

Extended Weather Synopsis for Tuesday night through Tuesday

An upper level ridge amplifying well offshore around 150W will allow an upper level trough to dig off of our coast Sunday and Monday, and in the process open the door for much colder air to enter the region. 

Although the overall pattern has fair confidence, the actual evolution through Monday comes with high uncertainty. What seems likeliest at this point is that surface low forming off Vancover Island Sunday will drop south off of our coast Sunday night drawing modified arctic air through the Fraser River Valley and the Cascade gaps. Light snow should develop Sunday afternoon, with northern areas drying out first Sunday night as the low slips south and drier air works into the region. Right now this looks like a light cold snow event for many areas. The eastern slopes of the Cascades should benefit from light upslope during this period. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Saturday Night Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 3500' - 4500'
Sunday Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 3000'
Sunday Night Snow Level 0' - 500' 500' - 1500' 1500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 500'
Monday Snow Level
0' - 500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
500' - 1500'
Monday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Sunday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Monday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 31, 2019

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