Issued: 2:11 PM PST Thursday, January 3, 2019
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Tuesday

After raining cats and dogs at most sites along the west slopes of the Cascades this morning, a plume of warm frontal moisture has lifted north this afternoon, providing a break for the south Washington Cascades. However, the heavier precipitation and stronger winds will stay focused on the Olympics and Mt. Baker area through this evening. 

The associated frontal boundary will pass from north to south through the Cascades tonight and precipitation rates will pick up once again. Snow levels will be slow to cool, but a brief period of easterly flow may allow snow levels to briefly drop to Pass level early Friday morning.  Once the front passes through, snow levels will settle rather uniformly across the region in the 4000-4500 ft range.  

On Friday, the front will split apart as the parent low pressure system stalls off the central B.C. coast and a new upper low digs off the California coast. Post frontal SW flow should mainly benefit the Mt. Baker area in the way of significant accumulating snow showers above 4000 ft. Other areas will see light showers Friday. 

Showers should end Friday night with dry conditions forecast through Saturday morning.  An approaching longwave trough will begin to shift showers into the Olympics and south Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood on Saturday afternoon. 

 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Thursday Night Stormy with moderate rain and snow. Slight cooling trend late.
Mt. Baker
Thursday Night Stormy with moderate to heavy rain and snow. Slight cooling trend late.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Thursday Night Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. Windy in the alpine. Slight cooling trend late.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Thursday Night Light rain and snow, becoming moderate late this evening. Snow levels may drop to Pass level after midnight as Pass winds become light easterly.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Thursday Night Light rain and snow, becoming moderate late this evening. Windy in the alpine. Slight cooling trend late.
Mt. Hood
Thursday Night Periods of light rain and snow increasing late. Becoming windy in the alpine.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening Snow Level 5500' 5000' 5000' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500' 7000'
Thursday Night Snow Level * 4500' 4500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4500' 5500'
Friday Morning Snow Level 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level 3500' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level 3500' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5000'
Friday Night Snow Level 4000' 3500' 3000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5500'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level 5000' 4000' 3000' 3000' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Friday Evening Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Friday Evening Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Washington Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
3000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
3000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Leavenworth Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
3000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
4000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening Snow Level
7000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
5000'
Friday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Friday Night Snow Level
5500'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
4500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Tuesday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.50 1.00 - 1.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Washington Pass 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 0 0
Leavenworth LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0 0
Stevens Pass 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 0 0
Snoqualmie Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 0 0
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0 0
Crystal Mt 0.75 LT 0.25 0 0
Paradise 1.00 0.25 0 LT 0.10
White Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
0.25 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 1.50
Tuesday 1.00 - 1.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.25
Tuesday LT 0.10
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.10
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.10
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.75
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday 0
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 1.00
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday LT 0.10
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday LT 0.25
Tuesday Night 0
Tuesday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.25
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0.25
Tuesday 0.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday LT 0.25

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30 S 35 - 50 S 20 - 30 S 20 - 30 SW 15 - 25
Thursday Night SSW 25 - 35 S 15 - 25 SSW 20 - 30 S 30 - 40 SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 25 - 35 S 20 - 30 SW 20 - 35 SW 15 - 25 SW 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night SSW 25 - 35
Friday Morning SW 25 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening S 35 - 50
Thursday Night S 15 - 25
Friday Morning S 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SSW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night SSW 20 - 30
Friday Morning SW 20 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night S 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 15 - 25
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening SW 15 - 25
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night SSW 25 - 35
Friday Morning SW 25 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 35 - 50
Thursday Night S 15 - 25
Friday Morning S 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SSW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night SSW 20 - 30
Friday Morning SW 20 - 35
Friday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening S 20 - 30
Thursday Night S 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 15 - 25
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 15 - 25
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 20 - 30
Friday Afternoon SW 10 - 20

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening SW 50 - 60 SW 45 - 55 SW 55 - 65 SW 55 - 65 SW 50 - 60
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40 SW 45 - 55 SW 60 - 70 SW 60 - 70 SW 60 - 70
Friday Morning SW 35 - 45 SW 35 - 45 SW 35 - 45 SW 40 - 50 SW 45 - 55
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 50 - 60
Thursday Night SW 30 - 40
Friday Morning SW 35 - 45
Friday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 45 - 55
Thursday Night SW 45 - 55
Friday Morning SW 35 - 45
Friday Afternoon SW 35 - 45
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 55 - 65
Thursday Night SW 60 - 70
Friday Morning SW 35 - 45
Friday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 55 - 65
Thursday Night SW 60 - 70
Friday Morning SW 40 - 50
Friday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SW 50 - 60
Thursday Night SW 60 - 70
Friday Morning SW 45 - 55
Friday Afternoon SW 25 - 35

Extended Weather Synopsis for Tuesday night through Tuesday

The aforementioned trough should pass through Saturday night, potentially causing a period of moderate snow accumulation along the west slopes of the Washington Cascades at cooler snow levels through Sunday morning. Forecast models become murky after that. A developing low pressure system should pass into southwest Washington/northwest Oregon late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There is poor confidence in the timing and details regarding this system.  

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Saturday Night Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2000' - 3000' 2500' - 3500'
Sunday Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 3000' 3000' - 4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Monday Snow Level
500' - 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Monday Snow Level
500' - 1500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Sunday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Monday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 3, 2019

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