Issued: 3:04 PM PST Tuesday, February 13, 2018
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Tuesday & Thursday

The strong upper level ridge anchored offshore near 145W has become flattened as a frontal wave currently E-W oriented over central British Columbia continues to sag south.  High and mid clouds will filter into the forecast area from north to south today. Skies will become cloudy over the north Cascades by late morning and be accompanied by increasing crest level winds out of the west. The south Cascades including Mt. Hood should see mostly sunny skies for the better part of today. Out ahead of this frontal system, freezing levels are quite mild. Similar to the cloud forecast, there will be a north/south freezing level gradient over the region, with much warmer freezing levels realized in the south Cascades during the daylight hours. 

The front will quickly pass through tonight with precipitation developing late this evening over the Olympics and Washington Cascades.  Snow levels will fall rapidly as a sharp cool upper trough moves over the region by early Wednesday morning. Post-frontal snow showers are expected to linger longest in the central and southwest Cascades Wednesday afternoon, with skies becoming broken over the Olympics and north Cascades as the flow aloft turns more northerly. A quick 6-12 inches of snow is possible for the west slopes of the Cascades and Mt. Hood from this system with lower snowfall totals expected for the Olympics and the east slopes of the Cascades.  

The upper level ridge will amplify offshore Wednesday night and shower activity will quickly taper down as the trough shifts into the Intermountain West.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Tuesday Mostly clear with increasing high and mid clouds during the day, becoming cloudy by afternoon.
Tuesday Night Light snow developing in the evening. Rapid cooling.
Wednesday Light to occasionally moderate snow showers becoming scattered showers with broken skies in the afternoon.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Tuesday Mostly clear this morning with increasing high and mid clouds during the day, becoming cloudy north Cascades and partly sunny south Cascades. Increasing crest level winds north and central Cascades in the afternoon. Milder south Cascades.
Tuesday Night Light snow developing in the late evening and spreading south. Light snow becoming occasionally moderate after midnight. Rapid cooling.
Wednesday Light to moderate snow showers becoming lighter in the afternoon except showers becoming scattered with broken skies north Cascades in the afternoon.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Tuesday Mostly clear this morning with increasing high and mid clouds during the day, becoming cloudy northeast Cascades and partly sunny southeast Cascades. Increasing crest level winds northeast and central-east Cascades in the afternoon. Milder central-east and southeast Cascades.
Tuesday Night Light snow developing in the late evening and spreading south overnight. Rapid cooling.
Wednesday Light snow showers in the morning becoming scattered showers with broken skies in the afternoon.
Mt. Hood
Tuesday Mostly clear this morning, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with increasing high clouds. Mild.
Tuesday Night Light snow developing after midnight. Rapid cooling. Increasing winds late.
Wednesday Light to moderate snow showers becoming lighter in the afternoon. Windy.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level 7000' 4000' 5000' ' ' 6500' ' 9500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level 3000' 2000' 2500' ' ' 2500' ' 3000'
Wednesday Snow Level 2000' 1500' 2000' ' ' 2000' ' 2500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
7000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3000'
Wednesday Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
4000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Snow Level
1500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000'
Washington Pass Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
5000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000'
Leavenworth Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
Wednesday Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
Wednesday Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
'
Wednesday Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon Freezing Level
9500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3000'
Wednesday Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Thursday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Washington Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Stevens Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 0.50
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Paradise 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 0.50
White Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 0.75 - 1.00
LT 0.10 0 - 1.00

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15 SW 5 - 15 SW 5 - 15 --- - SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 SW 15 - 30 --- - SW 15 - 25
Wednesday Morning WNW 10 - 20 NW 0 - 10 SW 10 - 20 --- - W 20 - 30
Wednesday Afternoon NW 0 - 10 NW 0 - 10 WNW 10 - 20 --- - W 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 25
Wednesday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Wednesday Afternoon NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Night W 0 - 10
Mt. Baker Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 10 - 20
Wednesday Morning NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Afternoon NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Night W 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 30
Wednesday Morning SW 10 - 20
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 10 - 20
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Wednesday Morning --- -
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 25
Wednesday Morning W 20 - 30
Wednesday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Wednesday Night W 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 25
Wednesday Morning WNW 10 - 20
Wednesday Afternoon NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Night W 0 - 10
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 10 - 20
Wednesday Morning NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Afternoon NW 0 - 10
Wednesday Night W 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 30
Wednesday Morning SW 10 - 20
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 10 - 20
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Wednesday Morning --- -
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Tuesday Night SW 15 - 25
Wednesday Morning W 20 - 30
Wednesday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Wednesday Night W 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40 WSW 35 - 45 WSW 25 - 35 --- - W 10 - 20
Tuesday Night WSW 25 - 35 W 25 - 35 WSW 30 - 40 --- - W 40 - 50
Wednesday Morning NW 5 - 15 NW 10 - 20 NW 15 - 30 --- - W 40 - 50
Wednesday Afternoon NW 5 - 15 NW 10 - 20 NW 15 - 30 --- - WNW 30 - 40
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Night WSW 25 - 35
Wednesday Morning NW 5 - 15
Wednesday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Wednesday Night NW 10 - 20
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45
Tuesday Night W 25 - 35
Wednesday Morning NW 10 - 20
Wednesday Afternoon NW 10 - 20
Wednesday Night NW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Tuesday Night WSW 30 - 40
Wednesday Morning NW 15 - 30
Wednesday Afternoon NW 15 - 30
Wednesday Night NW 25 - 35
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon --- -
Tuesday Night --- -
Wednesday Morning --- -
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Tuesday Afternoon W 10 - 20
Tuesday Night W 40 - 50
Wednesday Morning W 40 - 50
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 30 - 40
Wednesday Night NW 20 - 30

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

The story of NW flow aloft over the region continues through the extended period, with the mean position of the Pacific Ridge offshore deciding how much snow levels will rise with Friday's and Saturday's weather systems.

Thursday will be a relative break in the otherwise active pattern expected over much of the holiday weekend, with plenty of moisture trapped along the west slopes of the Cascades and continued cool temperatures leading to a cloudy forecast with light snow showers. Areas further east and south will have a better chance of sunbreaks. 

A low pressure system upstream and off the northern tip of Vancouver Island Thursday night will quickly spread light snow over the Olympics and Cascades as it drops SE toward the region. The upper level ridge will have amplified Thursday and should shift slightly closer to the coast Friday and Saturday. This will lift the jet stream into British Columbia and allow some warming to take place Friday afternoon.  A second and stronger system arriving Saturday looks to maintain the same snow levels but with the potential for heavier precipitation and stronger winds, especially for the northwest and central-west Cascades. Ensemble forecasts for Friday/Saturday suggest some uncertainty to how much snow levels will rise during this period. 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Thursday Cloudy Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades with light snow showers mainly in the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy east slopes of the Cascades and Mt. Hood. Light snow developing overnight all areas. Friday Light to moderate rain and snow, heaviest west slopes of the Cascades. Slow warming trend. Increasing winds overnight. Saturday Light to moderate rain and snow south Cascades and Mt. Hood. Moderate to occasionally rain and snow Olympics, central and north Cascades. Windy.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Thursday Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500'
Thursday Night Snow Level 500' - 1500' 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 3000'
Friday Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 3500' - 4500' 4000' - 5000'
Friday Night Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3500' - 4500' 5000' - 6000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
500' - 1500'
Friday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Saturday Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Friday Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Saturday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Friday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
Friday Night Snow Level
5000' - 6000'
Saturday Snow Level
5000' - 6000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 13, 2018

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