Issued: 1:12 PM PST Thursday, December 18, 2014
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Thursday & Tuesday

A frontal system currently off the Washington Coast is pushing light to moderate bands of precipitation inland Thursday afternoon.   Snow levels should stay steady at moderate levels and with cool easterly flow in the Cascade passes...this should be a light to moderate snow event for most areas with the heaviest accumulations on the volcanoes.  

A weak ridge should build on Friday with leftover showers for the mountains and light additional accumulations.

The jet stream over the eastern Pacific will become more consolidated and quite strong leading into the weekend...preparing a series of strong and wet weather systems for our area.

Note: Avalanche forecasts will begin on Friday, Dec 19th.     

Weather Forecast

Olympics, Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes and Mt. Hood
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Night

Light to moderate rain and snow, heaviest volcanoes.  

Friday - Friday Evening

Mostly cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. 

Olympics, Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes and Mt. Hood
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Night

Light rain and snow.  

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level * 5500' 4500' 3500' ' ' 4000' ' 5500'
Thursday Night Snow Level * 4000' 4000' 3500' ' ' 4000' ' 4500'
Friday Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3000' ' ' 3500' ' 4000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Friday Snow Level
4000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Tuesday Tuesday
Hurricane Ridge 0 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area 0 - 1.50 0.50 - 0.75
Washington Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Stevens Pass 0 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass 0 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Mission Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Paradise 1.00 - 1.50 0 - 0.50
White Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 0 - 1.00 0.25 - 0.50
1.00 - 1.50 0.50 - 0.75

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30 S 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 --- - SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25 SW 15 - 25 SW 15 - 25 --- - WSW 15 - 25
Friday SW 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 --- - WSW 10 - 20
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 15 - 25
Friday Night S 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Afternoon S 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 10 - 20
Friday Night S 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 10 - 20
Friday Night SE 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Friday --- -
Friday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25
Friday WSW 10 - 20
Friday Night SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 15 - 25
Friday Night S 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon S 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 10 - 20
Friday Night S 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday SW 10 - 20
Friday Night SE 10 - 20
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Friday --- -
Friday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 10 - 20
Thursday Night WSW 15 - 25
Friday WSW 10 - 20
Friday Night SW 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Afternoon SW 25 - 35 WSW 20 - 30 SW 25 - 35 --- - SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 25 - 35 SW 15 - 25 SW 25 - 35 --- - SW 25 - 35
Friday SW 15 - 25 W 15 - 25 WSW 20 - 30 --- - WSW 25 - 35
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 25 - 35
Friday SW 15 - 25
Friday Night SW 20 - 30
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Friday W 15 - 25
Friday Night SW 10 - 20
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Thursday Night SW 25 - 35
Friday WSW 20 - 30
Friday Night SW 25 - 35
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Friday --- -
Friday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Afternoon SW 30 - 40
Thursday Night SW 25 - 35
Friday WSW 25 - 35
Friday Night SW 25 - 35

Extended Weather Synopsis for Tuesday night through Tuesday

Get ready for a wet and wild weekend...in terms of weather of course.  The aforementioned very strong westerly jet stream will send at least 2 pulses of heavy precipitation into our area.  The first will arrive on Saturday...with precipitation becoming heavy in the Cascades by mid-day.  Initial easterly flow through the Cascade Passes should translate into snow even as warm air rides in aloft.  A switch to rain in the Passes will likely happen mid-day or late Saturday afternoon.   

The strongest warming should occur Saturday afternoon through Saturday night and settle at these moderately high levels through Sunday keeping rain in the low to moderate elevations and wet snow at higher elevations. Strong westerly flow aloft will translate into stormy conditions for the mountains, with the secondary pulse arriving sometime Sunday.  Precipitation could be very heavy for the south Cascades and Mt. Hood area Sunday.    

Precipitation may ease on Monday...there is poor forecast model agreement but in any case there does not seem to be much cooling as an upper level ridge off the southern CA coast strengthens and maintains warm air aloft over the region. 

  

Extended Weather

Washington Cascades near and west of the crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and White Passes and Mt. Hood
Saturday Morning - Saturday Mid-day

Light to moderate rain and snow increasing through mid-day.   

Saturday Afternoon - Sunday

Stormy periods with moderate to heavy rain and snow.  Warming trend.   Precipitation could be very heavy south Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood area Sunday. 

Monday

Light to moderate rain and snow.  Mild.  

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Saturday Morning - Saturday Mid-day Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 2500' - 3500' 4000' - 5000' *
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level 4000' - 5000' 5000' - 6500' 7000' - 8000'
Saturday Night Snow Level 4500' - 5500' 5500' - 6500' 7500' - 8500'
Sunday Snow Level 5000' - 6000' 6000' - 7000' 7500' - 8500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Morning - Saturday Mid-day Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
4500' - 5500'
Sunday Snow Level
5000' - 6000'
Monday Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Morning - Saturday Mid-day Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
5000' - 6500'
Saturday Night Snow Level
5500' - 6500'
Sunday Snow Level
6000' - 7000'
Monday Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Morning - Saturday Mid-day Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
7000' - 8000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
7500' - 8500'
Sunday Snow Level
7500' - 8500'
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 6500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Apr 26, 2014

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.