Issued: 2:12 PM PST Wednesday, February 3, 2021
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Throughout the five-day forecast period, a ridge of high-pressure extends up to Alaska and dominates the NE Pacific. A deep trough allows very cold air to spill into the eastern US. The Pacific Northwest sits within a very tight temperature and pressure gradient that is creating a strong jetstream over the region with NW flow along the backside of the ridge.

Wednesday night, clouds should increase ahead of an initial weak perturbation dropping SE. Light to very light snow should develop for the mountains of northern Washington by the morning hours.

On Thursday, light to moderate snow increases for the mountains of Washington as NW flow aloft continues. Mt. Baker stands to pick up the most, perhaps 5-8" of snow by the end of the day. W ridgeline winds should increase into the moderate range by Thursday afternoon and should be strongest along the east slopes of the Cascades.

Thursday night the jetstream lifts northward into British Columbia and reaches (reaching 150 mph plus speeds). Heavy rain and snow should focus on the west slopes of the Cascades and Olympics. The heaviest precipitation will be over northern and central Washington. Mt. Baker and Snoqualmie Pass can expect around an inch of water equivalent Thursday night. Snow levels should rise above Snoqualmie pass level at some point Thursday night, drastically limiting snow totals, but above the rain/snow line, significant snow accumulations are expected. W winds should continue to increase into the moderate to strong range, particularly for areas favored by strong downslope acceleration.

On Friday, the perturbation moves east. Rain and snow should decrease in the light to moderate range. Snow levels remain near or just above Snoqualmie Pass level. Downslope winds are likely to peak early Friday in the strong to very strong range.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with a chance of light snow developing by morning.
Thursday Periods of light snow.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with light snow developing after midnight.
Thursday Increasing moderate snow.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with light snow developing after midnight.
Thursday Increasing light to moderate snow.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with very light snow possibly developing in the early morning hours.
Thursday Increasing light snow, heaviest at Paradise.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with very light snow developing after midnight. Light W winds at the Pass.
Thursday Increasing light to moderate snow. Light to occasionally moderate W winds at pass level.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with light snow developing after midnight. Light W winds at the Pass.
Thursday Increasing moderate snow. Light to moderate W winds at pass level.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with very light snow developing around and west of the Washington Pass.
Thursday Increasing light snow. Increasing ridgeline winds may be moderate to occasionally strong late in the day.
Wednesday Night Increasing clouds with very light snow developing after midnight.
Thursday Increasing light snow. Moderate ridgeline winds may strong at times late in the day.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy in the evening with increasing clouds after midnight.
Thursday Light snow developing during the morning hours.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy.
Thursday Cloudy with light snow developing late in the day. Moderate ridgeline winds may gust strongly late in the day.

Precipitation (in)

Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.10 0.50 - 0.75 1.00 LT 0.25
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 1.00 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 0.75 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 0.50 1.00 0.50
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.25 0.25
Paradise LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.50 - 0.75 0.50
White Pass 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 0.25
Washington Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.50 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge 0 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.50 0.25
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.25
Timberline LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday Night 1.00
Friday LT 0.25
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night 1.00
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night 0.75
Friday 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night 1.00
Friday 0.50
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0.25
Friday 0.25
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Friday 0.50
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Friday 0.25
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday 0
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0.50
Friday 0.25
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.25
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.25

Snow Level (ft)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon
Olympics 2500' 2000' 2000' 3500' 4500' 4000' 4500' 4500'
West North 2000' 1000' 1500' 2000' 2500' 3000' 3500' 3500'
West Central 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000' 3000' 3500' 3000' 4000'
West South 2000' 1000' 1500' 2500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 4500'
Stevens Pass 2000' 1500' 1500' 2500' 3000' 3500' 3000' 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 1500' 1500' 2500' 3000' 3500' 3000' 4000'
East North 2000' 500' 1000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 4000'
East Central 2000' 1000' 1500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500' 4000'
East South 2000' 1500' 1500' 3000' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4500'
Mt. Hood 2000' 2000' 2000' 2500' 3000' 3500' 3500' 4000'
Olympics Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2500'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning 2000'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 4500'
Thursday Night 4000'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 4500'
West North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1000'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 2000'
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon 3500'
West Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1500'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 2000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 4000'
West South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1000'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 2500'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon 4500'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1500'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 2500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1500'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 2500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 4000'
East North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 500'
Thursday Morning 1000'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 4000'
East Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1000'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon 4000'
East South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 1500'
Thursday Morning 1500'
Thursday Afternoon 3000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 4000'
Friday Morning 4000'
Friday Afternoon 4500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening 2000'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning 2000'
Thursday Afternoon 2500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon 4000'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Wednesday Night Thursday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 24 / 22 29 / 24
West North 21 / 19 26 / 22
West Central 22 / 18 25 / 22
West South 24 / 20 27 / 21
Stevens Pass 23 / 19 26 / 22
Snoqualmie Pass 24 / 19 26 / 22
East North 21 / 19 29 / 21
East Central 22 / 19 28 / 21
East South 23 / 21 30 / 21
Mt. Hood 23 / 21 32 / 23
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 24 / 22
Thursday 29 / 24
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 21 / 19
Thursday 26 / 22
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 22 / 18
Thursday 25 / 22
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 24 / 20
Thursday 27 / 21
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 23 / 19
Thursday 26 / 22
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 24 / 19
Thursday 26 / 22
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 21 / 19
Thursday 29 / 21
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 22 / 19
Thursday 28 / 21
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 23 / 21
Thursday 30 / 21
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 23 / 21
Thursday 32 / 23

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon
Olympics WSW 0-10 WSW 0-10 WSW 5-15 WSW 5-15
West North W 10-20 WSW 5-15 WSW 10-20 WSW 10-20
West Central WNW 5-15 W 10-20 WSW 10-20 W 10-20
West South WNW 5-15 WSW 5-15 WSW 5-15 NW 10-20
Stevens Pass W 5-15 W 10-20 W 10-20 W 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass WNW 10-20 WNW 10-20 W 10-20 WNW 20-30
East North WNW 10-20 W 15-25 W 15-25 W 20-30
East Central WNW 15-25 WNW 20-30 W 15-25 WNW 20-30
East South WNW 5-15 WNW 10-20 WNW 10-20 WNW 10-20
Mt. Hood WNW 5-15 W 10-20 WNW 15-25 WNW 20-30
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 0-10
Wednesday Night WSW 0-10
Thursday Morning WSW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 5-15
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 5-15
Thursday Morning WSW 10-20
Thursday Afternoon WSW 10-20
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 5-15
Wednesday Night W 10-20
Thursday Morning WSW 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 5-15
Wednesday Night WSW 5-15
Thursday Morning WSW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon NW 10-20
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening W 5-15
Wednesday Night W 10-20
Thursday Morning W 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 10-20
Wednesday Night WNW 10-20
Thursday Morning W 10-20
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 10-20
Wednesday Night W 15-25
Thursday Morning W 15-25
Thursday Afternoon W 20-30
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 15-25
Wednesday Night WNW 20-30
Thursday Morning W 15-25
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 5-15
Wednesday Night WNW 10-20
Thursday Morning WNW 10-20
Thursday Afternoon WNW 10-20
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WNW 5-15
Wednesday Night W 10-20
Thursday Morning WNW 15-25
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30

Extended Weather Synopsis

Friday night brings continued NW anti-cyclonic flow behind the departed significant perturbation. Rain and snow shower activity along the west slopes of the Cascades should be light, with a weak convergence zone showing up in some model solutions, focusing on the Central Cascades. Another perturbation on WNW flow arrives Saturday with increasing moderate to heavy snow again focusing on the west slopes of the mountains through Saturday night. Strong westerly downslope winds should once again impact the E slopes of the Cascades. The perturbation relents as models show signs of a retrograding (westward-moving) broad trough over the central US. This may result in moderate rain and snow pushed south toward the southern Washington and Oregon Cascades on Sunday.

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
West North 3000' 2500' 1500' 500'
Snoqualmie Pass 3500' 2500' 2000' 1000'
Mt. Hood 4500' 4000' 3000' 2500'
West North Elevation
Friday Night 3000'
Saturday 2500'
Saturday Night 1500'
Sunday 500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night 3500'
Saturday 2500'
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 1000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night 4500'
Saturday 4000'
Saturday Night 3000'
Sunday 2500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 3, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.