Issued: 2:12 PM PST Tuesday, January 5, 2021
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

The final major storm in an unrelenting train off the Pacific will approach the area on Tuesday aims a strengthening warm front on Washington State, Saturday evening, with a cold front just behind. This situation will allow moderate E flow to keep the Snoqualmie pass just cold enough for snow and shouldn't allow enough warming to significantly alter snow levels during the storm. S and SSW winds will focus the heaviest precipitation on Mt. Baker and Paradise, but widespread moderate to heavy precipitation and 1-2 ft snow totals can be expected across much of the Cascades above 3000 ft. Strong winds should peak in the evening hours and then gradually decrease in areas such as Hurricane Ridge, Mt. Baker, and Paradise which tend to feel the brunt of southerly flow. The cold front weakens as it slowly moves ESE. Mt. Hood should see a delay in the onset and the end of the storm with moderate precipitation late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before tapering off in the afternoon.

On Wednesday, light to moderate post-frontal showers should be strongest early in the day, with a relative break in the mid-day hours as the upper trough settles into the region. A disturbance forming within the upper trough could spread light to moderate snow back into the Mt. Hood area, the Olympics, and southern Washington Cascades late in the day.

This disturbance should continue to spread light to spread decreasing light snow to the region Wednesday night and should switch low-level flow temporarily westerly.

The trough progresses east on Thursday with a ridge building over eastern Washington and dominating our weather. Increasing E flow develops through the passes as the next storm begins to approach from the west.

 

Overall, the storm is likely to bring 1-2 ft of snow to many areas of the Cascades with the most expected at Mt. Baker, Paradise, Snoqualmie Pass, and Washington Pass.

An incoming upper trough will likely bring a disturbance with some light to moderate snow moving into the Olympics and Mt. Hood area during the afternoon.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Tuesday Night Heavy rain and snow in the evening, decreasing overnight. Decreasing moderate to strong ridgeline winds in the evening.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow showers.
Tuesday Night Very heavy rain and snow decreasing slightly in the early morning hours. Decreasing strong ridgeline winds in the evening.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers early in the day, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday Night Heavy rain and snow.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow re-developing in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Heavy rain and snow at Paradise and Crystal with moderate rain and snow at White Pass. Decreasing strong ridgeline winds in the evening.
Wednesday Light to moderate rain and snow.
Tuesday Night Moderate rain and snow. Light E winds at pass level.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow re-developing in the afternoon. Light E wind at pass level becoming variable or W in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Heavy rain and snow. Decreasing moderate E winds at pass level.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow re-developing in the afternoon. Light E wind at pass level becoming variable or W in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Heavy snow.
Wednesday Light snow showers tapering in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday Night Heavy rain and snow.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers decreasing in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow developing late in the day.
Tuesday Night Moderate rain and snow.
Wednesday Light rain and snow showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow re-developing in the afternoon. Light E wind at pass level becoming variable or W in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Moderate rain and snow developing in the overnight hours. Strong ridgeline winds.
Wednesday Moderate rain and snow.

Precipitation (in)

Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.75 0 LT 0.10 0
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.50 - 2.00 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 1.50 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Stevens Pass 1.00 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 0
Snoqualmie Pass 1.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0
Crystal Mt 1.00 - 1.50 0.25 LT 0.25 0
Paradise 2.00 0.50 0.25 0
White Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 0
Washington Pass 1.00 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Mission Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 1.00 - 1.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0.50 0.25 LT 0.25 0
Mt Hood Meadows 0.25 - 0.50 0.75 0.50 0
Timberline 0.25 - 0.50 0.75 -1.00 0.50 0
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.75
Wednesday 0
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.50 - 2.00
Wednesday LT 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.50
Wednesday 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.00
Wednesday LT 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.50
Wednesday 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Wednesday 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 2.00
Wednesday 0.50
Wednesday Night 0.25
Thursday 0
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Wednesday 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday Night 0.25
Thursday 0
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.00
Wednesday LT 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday LT 0.10
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Wednesday LT 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.50
Wednesday 0.25
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday 0.75
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday 0.75 -1.00
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0

Snow Level (ft)

Tuesday Evening* Tuesday Night* Wednesday Morning* Wednesday Afternoon* Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning* Thursday Afternoon*
Olympics 3500' 4000' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2000' 3000' 5000'
West North 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2500' 2000' 2000' 3500'
West Central 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 2500' 4000'
West South 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 3500' 2500' 3000' 4000'
Stevens Pass 2500' 2000' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2500' 2500' 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 3000' 2500' 3000' 4000'
East North 2000' 2000' 2000' 3000' 3000' 2000' 2000' 3500'
East Central 2500' 2500' 2500' 3500' 3000' 2000' 2500' 4000'
East South 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4000' 2500' 2500' 3500'
Mt. Hood 5500' 4500' 4000' 4500' 3500' 3000' 3000' 4500'
Olympics Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 3500'
Tuesday Night* 4000'
Wednesday Morning* 2500'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning* 3000'
Thursday Afternoon* 5000'
West North Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2500'
Tuesday Night* 2500'
Wednesday Morning* 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 2500'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning* 2000'
Thursday Afternoon* 3500'
West Central Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2500'
Tuesday Night* 2500'
Wednesday Morning* 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 3000'
Thursday Morning* 2500'
Thursday Afternoon* 4000'
West South Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 3500'
Tuesday Night* 3500'
Wednesday Morning* 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon* 4000'
Wednesday Evening 3500'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning* 3000'
Thursday Afternoon* 4000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2500'
Tuesday Night* 2000'
Wednesday Morning* 2500'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning* 2500'
Thursday Afternoon* 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2500'
Tuesday Night* 2500'
Wednesday Morning* 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning* 3000'
Thursday Afternoon* 4000'
East North Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2000'
Tuesday Night* 2000'
Wednesday Morning* 2000'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3000'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning* 2000'
Thursday Afternoon* 3500'
East Central Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 2500'
Tuesday Night* 2500'
Wednesday Morning* 2500'
Wednesday Afternoon* 3500'
Wednesday Evening 3000'
Wednesday Night 2000'
Thursday Morning* 2500'
Thursday Afternoon* 4000'
East South Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 3500'
Tuesday Night* 3500'
Wednesday Morning* 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon* 4000'
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning* 2500'
Thursday Afternoon* 3500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday Evening* 5500'
Tuesday Night* 4500'
Wednesday Morning* 4000'
Wednesday Afternoon* 4500'
Wednesday Evening 3500'
Wednesday Night 3000'
Thursday Morning* 3000'
Thursday Afternoon* 4500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Tuesday Night Wednesday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 31 / 25 30 / 21
West North 30 / 28 29 / 24
West Central 31 / 27 30 / 28
West South 31 / 30 31 / 29
Stevens Pass 29 / 27 31 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 29 / 26 30 / 27
East North 25 / 24 30 / 25
East Central 28 / 26 31 / 27
East South 30 / 27 32 / 27
Mt. Hood 36 / 30 34 / 30
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 31 / 25
Wednesday 30 / 21
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 30 / 28
Wednesday 29 / 24
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 31 / 27
Wednesday 30 / 28
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 31 / 30
Wednesday 31 / 29
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 29 / 27
Wednesday 31 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 29 / 26
Wednesday 30 / 27
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 25 / 24
Wednesday 30 / 25
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 28 / 26
Wednesday 31 / 27
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 30 / 27
Wednesday 32 / 27
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Tuesday Night 36 / 30
Wednesday 34 / 30

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Tuesday Evening Tuesday Night Wednesday Morning Wednesday Afternoon
Olympics SSW 25-35 SW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 0-10
West North S 30-40 SSW 20-30 SSW 10-20 SSW 0-10
West Central SSE 15-25 SSW 20-30 SW 5-15 SSW 0-10
West South SSW 30-40 SW 15-25 SSW 5-15 SSW 5-15
Stevens Pass S 10-20 SSW 5-15 SW 0-10 ESE 0-10
Snoqualmie Pass ESE 10-20 S 5-15 SW 0-10 ESE 0-10
East North SSE 10-20 S 10-20 SW 5-15 WSW 0-10
East Central SSW 20-30 SW 15-25 WSW 5-15 SSW 0-10
East South SSW 15-25 SW 15-25 SW 5-15 SW 5-15
Mt. Hood SW 30-40 SW 30-40 SW 15-25 SW 10-20
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSW 25-35
Tuesday Night SW 10-20
Wednesday Morning SW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon SW 0-10
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening S 30-40
Tuesday Night SSW 20-30
Wednesday Morning SSW 10-20
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 0-10
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSE 15-25
Tuesday Night SSW 20-30
Wednesday Morning SW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 0-10
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSW 30-40
Tuesday Night SW 15-25
Wednesday Morning SSW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 5-15
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening S 10-20
Tuesday Night SSW 5-15
Wednesday Morning SW 0-10
Wednesday Afternoon ESE 0-10
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening ESE 10-20
Tuesday Night S 5-15
Wednesday Morning SW 0-10
Wednesday Afternoon ESE 0-10
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSE 10-20
Tuesday Night S 10-20
Wednesday Morning SW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon WSW 0-10
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSW 20-30
Tuesday Night SW 15-25
Wednesday Morning WSW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon SSW 0-10
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SSW 15-25
Tuesday Night SW 15-25
Wednesday Morning SW 5-15
Wednesday Afternoon SW 5-15
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Tuesday Evening SW 30-40
Tuesday Night SW 30-40
Wednesday Morning SW 15-25
Wednesday Afternoon SW 10-20

Extended Weather Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure shifts east of the region Thursday night as a closed low approaches off our coastline. A deep closed low gradually weakens as it moves northeast towards British Columbia. With high pressure to the east and a deep low offshore, the passes can expect moderate to strong low-level E flow. Rain and snow spread into the region late Thursday night with southerly flow likely to favor the volcanoes and E flow allowing for spillover onto the E slopes of the Cascades. The closed low becomes a weakening trough as it moves across our region, bringing moderate rain and snow focused on the Olympics and NW Washington Friday night. A progressive ridge moves across the area on Saturday, allowing for partly cloudy skies and filtered sunshine with the next system poised to spread rain and snow into the region Saturday night. Temperatures should be relatively consistent throughout the period near seasonal norms.

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Thursday Night* Friday * Friday Night* Saturday *
West North 2000' 2500' 2500' 2500'
Snoqualmie Pass 3000' 2500' 2500' 2500'
Mt. Hood 3500' 3000' 2500' 2500'
West North Elevation
Thursday Night* 2000'
Friday * 2500'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday * 2500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Night* 3000'
Friday * 2500'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday * 2500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Night* 3500'
Friday * 3000'
Friday Night* 2500'
Saturday * 2500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Jan 5, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.