Issued: 3:09 PM PST Wednesday, February 14, 2018
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Wednesday & Friday

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough embedded in Northwest flow aloft is sliding over the Pacific Northwest and has replaced a tongue of Tuesday's offshore high pressure ridge which had kept us under warm and generally fair weather. The trough axis has moved just east of the Cascades by Wednesday afternoon.The relatively stationary Pacific High pressure dominates all but the peripheries of the North Pacific Ocean and the next frontal wave to affect the region is currently riding over the top of the ridge and is located just south of Alaska.

A surface cold front which passed to our east on Tuesday night brought a significant decrease in temperatures (now most stations are in the 20's and 10's) with decreasing post-frontal westerly flow and generally decreasing light to moderate snow showers. A band of heavier convergence is currently moving south of Stevens pass toward Snoqualmie pass. Snow showers will be heaviest along the west slopes of the Cascades from the central Cascades to Mt. Hood. Any snow shower activity should be light by the afternoon and most areas will see snow showers ending by evening. 

Upper-level northwest flow will continue with a break between the systems generally Wednesday night through Thursday, with some very light snow shower activity continuing in the Mt. Hood area during this period.

Thursday night, another upper shortwave approaches from the northwest, spreading increasing light to occasional moderate snow into the region along with increasing moderate westerly winds at crest-level. The brunt of this system won't arrive until daylight hours on Friday.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Wednesday Partly cloudy.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear with increasing high clouds toward morning.
Thursday High clouds.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Wednesday Decreasing light snow showers, mostly south of Snoqualmie Pass. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with chance of a very light snow shower central and south. Mostly clear, north.
Thursday Increasing high clouds throughout, with scattered low clouds central and south. Light snow developing late in the central and south parts.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Wednesday Becoming partly sunny in the north. In the central and south parts, mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers near the crest and mostly clear further east.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear with some clouds near the crest, central and south.
Thursday Increasing high clouds
Mt. Hood
Wednesday Moderate snow showers, decreasing gradually.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, light snow showers.
Thursday Mostly cloudy with light snow showers.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level 2500' 2000' 2000' ' ' 2000' ' 2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level 1500' 1000' 500' ' ' 1000' ' 2000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level 1500' 1000' 1000' ' ' 2000' ' 2000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level 2000' 1500' 1500' ' ' 2000' ' 2500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1500'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
1500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
1500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500'
Washington Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
500'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
1500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500'
Leavenworth Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
1000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Thursday Night Snow Level
'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Wednesday Night Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Friday Friday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Washington Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10
Paradise 0.75 - 1.00 LT 0.25
White Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 1.00 - 1.25 LT 0.10
1.00 - 1.50 LT 0.10

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15 WNW 5 - 15 W 10 - 20 --- - W 20 - 30
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15 WNW 5 - 15 W 5 - 15 --- - W 20 - 30
Thursday Morning WSW 5 - 15 SSW 5 - 15 WNW 5 - 15 --- - W 15 - 25
Thursday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20 SSW 10 - 20 WSW 15 - 25 --- - WSW 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Morning WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Thursday Night WSW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Morning SSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SSW 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon W 10 - 20
Wednesday Night W 5 - 15
Thursday Morning WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Wednesday Night W 20 - 30
Thursday Morning W 15 - 25
Thursday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night WSW 25 - 35
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Morning WSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Thursday Night WSW 20 - 30
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Wednesday Night WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Morning SSW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon SSW 10 - 20
Thursday Night SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon W 10 - 20
Wednesday Night W 5 - 15
Thursday Morning WNW 5 - 15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Wednesday Night W 20 - 30
Thursday Morning W 15 - 25
Thursday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Night WSW 25 - 35

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Afternoon NW 10 - 20 NW 15 - 25 NW 20 - 30 --- - WNW 30 - 40
Wednesday Night NW 15 - 25 NW 15 - 25 NW 30 - 40 --- - NW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning W 10 - 20 W 10 - 20 WNW 15 - 25 --- - NW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25 WSW 15 - 25 W 20 - 30 --- - W 25 - 35
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon NW 10 - 20
Wednesday Night NW 15 - 25
Thursday Morning W 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 30 - 40
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon NW 15 - 25
Wednesday Night NW 15 - 25
Thursday Morning W 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Thursday Night WSW 35 - 50
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon NW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night NW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning WNW 15 - 25
Thursday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Thursday Night W 40 - 60
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon --- -
Wednesday Night --- -
Thursday Morning --- -
Thursday Afternoon --- -
Thursday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Afternoon WNW 30 - 40
Wednesday Night NW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning NW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon W 25 - 35
Thursday Night WNW 35 - 50

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Friday

The shortwave trough on strong NW flow will slide down the British Columbia coastline into Washington State by mid-day, bringing moderate rain and snow with gradually rising snow levels ahead of a surface frontal passage in the late afternoon hours. A changeover to rain at Snoqualmie Pass likely during the late afternoon hours before changing back to snow as temperatures cool behind the front. Precipitation is likely to remain all snow at Stevens Pass. Northwest flow will continue behind the front and snow showers will decrease Friday evening, with heavier amounts in convergence. Crest-level winds Friday and Friday night will be moderate to strong at times.

A stronger storm system and upper shortwave trough embedded into the larger continental-scale trough covering much of Canada will ride down the back-side of the offshore ridge tracking along the British Columbia coastline once again, with the surface low currently forecast to track over Vancouver, BC. This northward track allows the storm system to bring some rising freezing levels as it as a warm front will pass over the forecast area on Saturday morning and a cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon. During this warm-up, Snoqualmie Pass could once again see a changeover to rain for a period of time before changing back to snow, while Stevens Pass is likely to stay snow at pass level. This system will spread moderate to heavy precipitation late Friday night through the evening hours on Saturday, with light to moderate snow showers continuing from Snoqualmie Pass southward through Sunday as the surface and upper low sits and spins over Washington State on Sunday. As the low moves east late Sunday, the northerly flow will bringing modified arctic area to most our forecast area and likely the coldest area of the season to date.

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Friday Moderate rain and snow with gradually rising freezing levels and moderate to occasionally strong crest-level winds. Snow may change to rain at Snoqualmie Pass late Thursday afternoon. Showers will decrease rapidly Friday evening with a cooling trend. Heaviest precipitation throughout the storm in the central and south Cascades through Mt. Hood. Saturday Very stormy. Increasing moderate to heavy rain and snow along with strong crest-level winds becoming very strong at Mt. Hood. Rising snow levels Saturday morning with cooling in the late afternoon and evening hours. Moderate post-frontal snow showers decreasing from north to south. Cooling trend. Shifting wind directions. Sunday Light to moderate snow showers continue on Sunday south of Snoqualmie Pass as a modified arctic air mass moves in from the north.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Friday Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 2500' - 3500' 2500' - 3500'
Friday Night Snow Level 2000' - 3000' 2500' - 3500' 3500' - 4500'
Saturday Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 4000' 3000' - 5000'
Saturday Night Snow Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 2000' 500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Saturday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Saturday Night Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Saturday Snow Level
2000' - 4000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
0' - 2000'
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Saturday Snow Level
3000' - 5000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
500' - 2500'
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 1000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 14, 2018

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