Issued: 3:02 PM PST Sunday, December 17, 2017
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Sunday & Friday

Afternoon update: Precipitation forecasts for Day 1 have been adjusted downward, heavier precipitation still expected overnight through Monday morning. Snowfall totals through 2 PM Sunday have been light to non-existent due to warmer than expected temperatures and lighter precipitation totals.     

The upper ridge that led to a long period of dry weather over the Pacific Northwest has been temporarily flattened as the polar jet takes aim at southern British Columbia through the short term period. This will open the door to warm frontal moisture in strong westerly flow aloft.  Light to moderate precipitation should affect the west slopes of the Olympics and central and northern Washington Cascades today, with precipitation amounts falling off sharply to the south and east today. A warming trend will eventually overwhelm weak easterly flow in the Cascade Passes; Snoqualmie is expected to change to rain by mid-day while Stevens Pass should hold off until mid-late afternoon.     

The frontal boundary will finally shift south Sunday night through Monday morning, bringing some moderate precipitation to the SW Cascades including the Paradise area. Crystal mountain looks to be fairly blocked in this pattern with much lower totals.  A slight cooling trend will take place late Sunday night through Monday, but snow levels for the southern Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood area should stay on the mild side throughout the short term. The other main weather factor will be strong W-SW winds which are expected to increase Sunday afternoon and stay strong through Monday morning.  

Precipitation should temporarily ease off Monday afternoon before another potent storm system approaching in westerly flow begins to renew moderate precipitation late Monday night.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Sunday Periods of light rain and snow. Mild.
Sunday Night Light rain and snow. Slight cooling trend.
Monday Light rain and snow tapering off in the afternoon. Cooler.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Sunday Light rain and snow developing in the morning and increasing during the afternoon, becoming moderate central Cascades. Warming trend.
Sunday Night Light to moderate rain and snow, locally heavier Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Milder. Windy.
Monday Moderate rain and snow, heaviest central and south Cascades, becoming light in the afternoon. Slow cooling trend.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Sunday Light rain and snow except light to occasionally moderate central-east Cascades near the Cascade crest. Slow warming trend.
Sunday Night Light rain and snow, locally moderate central-east Cascades near the Cascade crest. Milder. Windy.
Monday Light rain and snow, tapering off in the afternoon from north to south. Slow cooling trend.
Mt. Hood
Sunday Periods of light rain and snow. Mild.
Sunday Night Periods of light rain and snow. Mild.
Monday Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. Mild.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level 6500' 4500' 4000' ' ' 5500' ' 7000'
Sunday Night Snow Level 6000' 4500' 4500' ' ' 5500' ' 6000'
Monday Morning Snow Level 4500' 3500' 4000' ' ' 4500' ' 6000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level 3000' 2500' 2500' ' ' 3500' ' 6000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
6000'
Monday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Monday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
4500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Monday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
4500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Monday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
Sunday Night Snow Level
5500'
Monday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Monday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Sunday Night Snow Level
'
Monday Morning Snow Level
'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Monday Night Snow Level
'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
7000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
6000'
Monday Morning Snow Level
6000'
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Monday Night Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Friday Friday
Hurricane Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 1.00
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.00 - 1.50 0 - 0.75
Washington Pass 0 - 0.50 0.50 - 0.75
Stevens Pass 1.50 - 2.00 1.00 - 1.50
Snoqualmie Pass 2.00 - 2.50 0 - 1.50
Mission Ridge LT 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Crystal Mt LT 0.25 0 - 0.75
Paradise 1.00 - 1.50 0 - 2.00
White Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0 - 1.00
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 0 - 0.50
LT 0.25 0 - 0.75

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30 SW 15 - 25 SW 25 - 35 --- - W 10 - 20
Sunday Night WSW 15 - 25 WSW 20 - 30 SW 30 - 50 --- - SW 20 - 30
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 25 WSW 15 - 25 WSW 15 - 30 --- - WSW 25 - 35
Monday Afternoon W 5 - 15 WSW 5 - 15 WSW 10 - 20 --- - SW 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Sunday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30
Sunday Night WSW 15 - 25
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon W 5 - 15
Monday Night S 25 - 35
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night WSW 20 - 30
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Monday Night SE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Sunday Night SW 30 - 50
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 30
Monday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Afternoon W 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 20 - 30
Monday Morning WSW 25 - 35
Monday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 25 - 35
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon WSW 20 - 30
Sunday Night WSW 15 - 25
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon W 5 - 15
Monday Night S 25 - 35
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Sunday Night WSW 20 - 30
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Monday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Monday Night SE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon SW 25 - 35
Sunday Night SW 30 - 50
Monday Morning WSW 15 - 30
Monday Afternoon WSW 10 - 20
Monday Night SW 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon W 10 - 20
Sunday Night SW 20 - 30
Monday Morning WSW 25 - 35
Monday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 25 - 35

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Sunday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45 WSW 40 - 50 W 40 - 50 --- - W 45 - 55
Sunday Night WSW 40 - 50 W 50 - 60 WSW 40 - 55 --- - W 45 - 55
Monday Morning WSW 30 - 40 W 45 - 55 W 45 - 60 --- - W 45 - 55
Monday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35 W 35 - 45 WSW 45 - 55 --- - W 35 - 45
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45
Sunday Night WSW 40 - 50
Monday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Monday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Monday Night SW 25 - 35
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon WSW 40 - 50
Sunday Night W 50 - 60
Monday Morning W 45 - 55
Monday Afternoon W 35 - 45
Monday Night SW 25 - 35
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon W 40 - 50
Sunday Night WSW 40 - 55
Monday Morning W 45 - 60
Monday Afternoon WSW 45 - 55
Monday Night SW 40 - 50
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon --- -
Sunday Night --- -
Monday Morning --- -
Monday Afternoon --- -
Monday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Sunday Afternoon W 45 - 55
Sunday Night W 45 - 55
Monday Morning W 45 - 55
Monday Afternoon W 35 - 45
Monday Night SW 40 - 50

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Friday

Our sudden jump into an active pattern continues with another frontal wave developing in strong westerly flow aloft and approaching our region Monday night into Tuesday.  A strong surface low will develop this time as the associated upper level trough digs off the Pacific coast on Tuesday, orienting the frontal boundary more N-S than the last system.  Heavy precipitation will develop out ahead of the front with strong SW winds, especially in the alpine.  There will be a warming trend that peaks mid-afternoon/early evening although snow levels do not look quite as high as the Sunday/Sunday night system.  

The front will pass through the Cascades early Tuesday evening with sharp cooling and showers behind.  Showers should quickly diminish on Wednesday as the upper level ridge amplifies offshore and the flow aloft turns northerly. Thursday currently looks dry but clouds out ahead of an approaching shortwave trough in NW flow aloft may spread over the area by the afternoon. 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Tuesday Stormy. Slight warming trend through early afternoon. Rain and snow becoming becoming light to occasionally moderate showers overnight. Strong cooling trend. Wednesday Partly to mostly cloudy with light snow showers tapering off by afternoon. Colder. Thursday Partly to mostly cloudy, high clouds increasing in the afternoon.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Tuesday Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 4000' - 5000' 5000' - 6000' *
Tuesday Night Snow Level 1500' - 2500' 2000' - 3000' 2500' - 3500'
Wednesday Freezing Level 0' - 1000' 500' - 1500' 1500' - 2500'
Wednesday Night Freezing Level 0' - 1000' 500' - 1500' 500' - 1500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Tuesday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Wednesday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Wednesday Night Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Thursday Freezing Level
1000' - 2000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Tuesday Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
2000' - 3000'
Wednesday Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Wednesday Night Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Thursday Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Tuesday Snow Level
5000' - 6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Wednesday Freezing Level
1500' - 2500'
Wednesday Night Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Thursday Freezing Level
1500' - 2500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 17, 2017

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